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The U.S. Dollar took a hit this morning following the release of the worse than expected June Non-Farm Payrolls Report. Going into the report, investors were looking for total jobless claims to fall 130,000. The actual number was -125,000.

More important to investors however was the number of private-sector jobs created. Pre-report estimates were for an increase of 115,000 jobs in the private-sector. The government was expected to say it released about 250.000 temporary Census workers last month. The actual hiring by the private sector was 83,000 jobs. This number was disappointing to traders.

Today’s bearish report comes on the heels of a rise in weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday along with a fall in home sales and a weak reading of a key manufacturing index.

Today’s negative reaction to the Dollar was in contrast to the recent pattern which showed a tendency toward flight to safety buying by investors following weaker U.S. economic news. Traders in the past had treated bad U.S. economic news as a bump in the road to recovery but the recent string of bad news has led investors to believe that a weaker trend is developing in the economy.  

U.S. stocks rallied initially after the release of the U.S. jobs report but this may have been because traders priced in a worse than expected private-sector hiring figure. Nonetheless, the private-sector number missed the consensus so this short-fall is likely to lead to selling pressure at some point during the trading session.  

Traders still look a little confused as to what to do with the jobs data. Short-term traders seem to want to rally the market because of technically oversold conditions. Longer-term traders are looking at the bigger picture which leans toward a weaker U.S. jobs outlook for the upcoming months.

Expect volatility today because of the expected clash between short-term traders and long-term investors. Don’t be surprised by a strong short-covering rally because of oversold conditions and position liquidation ahead of the three-day holiday.
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