Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Now that we are into July, it is time to see how our Indian Monsoon outlook is verifying so far this season.  We have several metrics, but the chart below illustrates the progress of the rains this year very well.  This chart shows the Weather Trends forecast for the weekly year-over-year change in total precipitation for India’s cities, which is represented by the bars, while the line represents the observations.  As we had forecast, the 2010 Monsoon has gotten off to a good start, relative to both last year and normal conditions.  This good start is extremely important to the agricultural sector, as the lack of moisture in the 2009 season left many growers in dire straits, not to mention its’ contribution to spikes in raw material prices.  However, as we noted in our early outlook for the season which was issued in April, while the expectations for 2010 are for a better year than 2009, there is still cause for concern.  Readers should note that we called for a strong initial onset period, which has materialized, but we then called for progress to scale back, and even be deficient in the central to northwestern portions of the country.  So while the southern subcontinent has been subject to very favorable conditions, things are different for the north, and the conditions do not appear to be changing for the better until the end of July into early August, so for growers in the central/norther states, the next few weeks may be difficult from a water perspective.   

Supporting our long range outlook, there are a couple of factors which may inhibit the development of convective activity over the next couple of weeks.  First, the typical seasonal low pressure systems, which are a prerequisite for the storm development associated with a healthy Monsoon, look to be deficient in the short term.  In addition, while there are pockets of moderately warm waters over the Bay of Bengal and northern Indian Ocean, a healthy active monsoon requires much more warm water to stimulate convection over the open waters – the map below shows a large area surrounding India with neutral water temperatures.

 

Many remember how last year’s lack of rains in India was one of the causes for the spike in raw sugar prices.  As we have been discussing for several months, while we are not calling for a repeat of year, we are not expecting a complete recovery either.  As we move through the 2010 season, continue to check back with Weather Trends for updates on how we feel the Monsoon pattern will continue progress, and where the potential impacts for agricultural commodities may arise.