Apparently, every TV commentator has finally taken a basic technical analysis course. They all know how to read a chart, or at least recent lows and highs. Congratulations, we’re making progress.
However, having an intra day trade at 9853 and a settlement at 9775 constitutes a “failure of 9800”.. Good lord, they are picky. My guess is that they and everyone like them who sold against the 9800 number today is going to get hammered by a short covering rally tomorrow through Friday.
We are going into a long weekend. If you were short, are you going home short over a holiday weekend where any thing can happen and you will be stuck over a 3 day holiday?
And by the way, what is the big deal even if we do break down another.. I want to buy 9430 to 9400 and then I want to buy 8866. If the per ma bulls on TV were sad today, wait til they see us trade there.
However, in the mean time, having a talking head squawking about how breaking below a certain number is bearish is enough to make me want to get long against his idea alone.
Always Always Always fade popular perception.
I see us rallying in the face of this bearishness going into the weekend. If I’m wrong, then we’ll get stopped out, and perhaps flip and get short, looking for the 38% move down to 9430.
In the grains, I think tomorrow we’ll see a flip on the corn/bean spread. I think we got a little far ahead of ourselves, and should see a pull back from corn and a bounce in the beans.
Now that we have the acres ironed out, it comes down to looking for the yield. That means speculating on the weather. I have yet to see a market in the Summer where we didn’t get one good, and generally two good weather induced trading opportunities.
Hang on til we open back up on Jul 5th. I’d be inclined to think we have a bottom in place in the corn. We made a new contract low on Tuesday, and then rallied like a stuck pig as soon as we opened up this morning.
Use any pullback to look for good levels to get long. A 15 cent move back from today’s highs would be the first level I’d want to buy. Buy the 50% pullback and risk 6 or 7 cents.
Good Trading
