Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
The Indian Monsoon is progressing as we expected this year – we had forecast a better start than last year which has verified with strong convective activity bringing rains to much of the southern subcontinent. However, the Weather Trends forecast has differed from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) & other sources in the fact that we were not expecting a complete rebound over last year (where many other forecasts were). While monsoon activity at the start of the season has certainly been better than the 2009 season, the precipitation totals in key agricultural regions has still been a little light and I expect this type of pattern to continue through July. Further, the area that has me the most concerned is the Western Rajasthan region; when the seasonal totals are in, I believe this region, along with portions of Eastern Raj. will be the hardest hit by a recurring lack of moisture. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have started off warm, which is needed for a pattern of strong convection to occur. But we are noticing in recent weeks that the SSTs off the southern coast have dropped off a bit, so the ‘fuel’ for a good series of storms carry a little less energy.
I will be issuing more definitive numbers on rainfall totals by mid July, but overall Weather Trends is sticking to the original forecast that was previously (better than LY, but no complete rebound over ‘09). Further, regarding La Nina development, global weather indices are pointing towards a much stronger possibility of La Nina conditions to develop later this year; we are already seeing a rather dramatic change in Pacific SSTs (cooler) and a shift in the Southern Oscillation Index (to positive phase), which are both leading indicators of a transition. The important factor is how rapidly we went from predominantly El Nino conditions to the start of a potentially strong La Nina. We will be watching this and issuing notes in the coming weeks.
(image source: Monsoon online)
