Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research
As many readers now, in 2009 Weather Trends went against the grain and called for a deficit in last year’s Monsoon rains, even when the default source for Monsoon forecasts, the Indian Met Dept, was forecasting a normal season. When we backtested our monsoon forecast, we saw that our outlook also verified for the previous six years. So as we approached the 2010 season, many with exposure to the Indian agricultural market were eager to hear of our outlook. Here are a few of the many examples of where we have been cited for our views on the 2010 monsoon:
- Monsoon expected to be normal, helping economy (Livemint/WSJ): http://www.livemint.com/2010/04/22000144/Monsoon-expected-to-be-normal.html
- Sugar Falls Most in Week on Signs of Rising Indian Production (Bloomberg Business Week): http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-14/sugar-falls-most-in-week-on-signs-of-rising-indian-production.html
- Monsoon: Well begun is only half won (Hindu Business Line): http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/05/18/stories/2010051853350200.htm
- Sugar to Soar If India Monsoon Fails, Forecaster Says (Bloomberg): http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aqR0OmmhTeNk
- El Nino fading a ‘positive sign’ for monsoon (Financial Express): http://www.financialexpress.com/news/el-nino-fading-a-positive-sign-for-monsoon-imd/592686/
- India’s Monsoon May Have a ‘Better’ Start This Year (Bloomberg) http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aFkYn2Z4rFuA
- Rain, slight uptick in mercury seen for North (Hindu Business Line): http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/2010/01/23/stories/2010012353522200.htm
- El Nino in 2010 – What Can We Expect? (GAFTA world): www.wxtrends.com/files/GaftaWorld-Feb_2010.pdf
Feel free to contact Weather Trends if you would like to discuss our forecast, and the potential impacts on agricultural commodities.
