Tuesday brought a nice rally across the broader markets on heavier volume than the markets saw on Monday. That leaves us with an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq, the first since May 21st for both indexes. We’ve had such split volume it has been one sided and unbalanced. The TRIN closed at .25 the lowest level on the year and the VIX at 25.87 about 17% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $11.50 to $1236 and oil up $1.82 to $76.94 a barrel.
The bullish day closed on the highs and had a nice bullish A/D and U/D lines. The Semi’s, hardware and internets took the lead today and never looked back. Financials underperformed and did keep the SPX on a slower track. Overall the day was healthy across the board and with this low TRIN close we can expect some follow through. The Dow and SPX also cleared the 200dma, the first close over since May 19th. NDX, COMPX, SPX and the Dow all closed just over the 38.2% fib resistance we have been watching since Monday. Now the broader markets have to stay over that key level that is not support. A close back under those levels would not confirm this break and put the bears in charge. (38.2% Dow 10330.70, SPX 1109.17, NDX 1872.30 and COMPX 2291.32)
The early data is likely to set the days tone. After the big advance on Tuesday we can also look for digestion and a pullback. The market has been very range bound and is not trying to move out of range. Breaking Tuesday’s highs will take the market higher and closer to the 50dma’s overhead. Only the NQ gave the daily pivot a look, the ES and TF did not take a look at them. It is very unusual to not test the daily pivot and now the Es has missed it for two days. I will look for 1104 to get many tests for a rotational zone on the ES Wednesday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1104, weekly pivot 1070. Intraday support: 1103.75, 1101, 1094.75, 1090.25, 1085.50 fills gap. Resistance: 1113.50, 1117.75, 1121, 1124.25, 1135.25, 1141.75
