9875 looks to be our Summer bottom. With the un ending dog and pony show sputtering to a stand off in Europe, it seems, the the rest of the world is holding its nose and staying with the US equities. We’ve seen everyone, right down to the Iranians, re own dollars.
The entire world seems to be in the out-house, wretching. However, the US has the largest out house, and, more importantly, has 15 carrier task forces at its disposal.
That leaves us the best alternative out of an alternative of weak choices.
As I write this, the Dow cash is up 87 points flirting with the 10300 level.
A few posts ago, I surmised that we would be in this 1000 point range between 9500 and 10500. I still believe that.
Is there still a possibility that a lingering panic is lurking out there which would snap us down to the 8860 level? Absolutely. However, all in all, it seems like we have entered the Summer doldrums. In a relatively short period of time, most of Europe will be alternating through its vacation months. If we can get through Mid July with no more fire works, I anticipate continued choppy ness and technical trade with no clear direction.
Sideways chopp in a 1,000 point trading range, high lighted by periodic 300 point moves due to lack of liquidity.
As we move through the next 6 months, remember, we have November elections, and then,…. sigh… we begin 2 years of election eering for the next Presidential Election.
I just don’t see anything on the horizon to get me really bullish or bearish at this point. Its Summer time, we’ve apparently settled down from the PIIGS panic.
I think, as far as trading opportunities, its time to move focus to a potential drought scenario in the US grains. We continue to have high basis looking for old crop beans. 25 cents over here in IL, while East of Chicago, they are paying up to 50 cents over, looking to shake out beans from farmers.
If we get a weather scare or two, it should give us something we have not had for the past 4 months. MOVEMENT !
I like another 30 cent bounce in the Wheat. Word from Canadian Wheat Board that its been too wet to plant, there fore they are anticipating 8 to 12 million acres will go unplanted due to record rain. They are looking to produce 22% less wheat, 41% less Durham, and 14% less Barley.
Oats at the CBOT have signaled this now for a few weeks. Typically a canary in a coal mine, I’d watch that contract closely if speculating on Wheat.
For now, it looks like we’ve got a bounce coming after an 80 cent down move.
I like looking for cheap calls or getting long futures as we head into the weather market of 2010.
Good Trading
