Monday kicked quadruple witching off with a marginal gain on the Nasdaq Composite and modest losses on the Nas 100, S&P 500 and the Dow. The day started with a lift for the first two hours and slowly turned down to finish on the days lows. Volume did pick up today and outpace Friday’s which leaves the COMPX with an accumulation day and the other broader markets with a distribution day. The TRIN closed at 1.47 bearish and the VIX at 28.58 about 11.5% from the 10dma. Gold closed down $6.10 to $1224.10 and oil closed up $1.34 to $75.12 a barrel.
The SPX and the Dow filled the gaps that were left open from June 3rd, however we didn’t get the lift into 38.2% and still sit under the 200dma. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 left the gap open from the 3rd and still sits under 38.2% resistance and now sits on the 200dma support. Sitting under this key resistance is a big line in the sand for the market. The rejection is just the first attempt and the market ran out of gas. With the attempt to not fill the gap left the market without buyers and pulled in for a reversal day. That isn’t terribly uncommon when volume dries up and you hit your head on resistance. It is quadruple witching so we’ll look for the volatility to pick up and keep the week on its toes.
Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots and that leaves Tuesday to use the daily as a rotational zone. The ES has 1077 support, a drop there would let us look for 1061.75. Back over 1095 look for a break of 1102.25. We will also look for 1070 weekly pivot to test this week but keep in mind the market has tested the pivot 4 of 5 weeks consistently and this is week 5. We could hit it, but it maybe the week for a miss there too. Early Tuesday we’ll look for an early bounce and for Monday’s lows to retest. The bears had a pretty heavy foot on us in the last hour, so retracement early is what we can look for.
I outlined these levels last night, but they are updated and still on watch for each broader market. Dow 10316.53 200dma -10330.70 38.2% and support to hold over is 9757.55. SPX 1108.26 200dma-1109.17 38.2% resistance levels and support 1042.17. NDX 1872.30 38.2% and 1895.66 fills gap for resistance and the support to hold over is 1825.52 200dma and 1770.46. COMPX 2291.32 38.2% and gap fills 2303.03 for resistance and support will be 2139.46.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, TBA NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell CLC. Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
