Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 4, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 93 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, June 4, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
98 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
97 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Malaysia Index, EWM
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
92 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
91 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
91 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
90 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
89 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
88 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
87 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
86 India Earnings WTree, EPI
86 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
85 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
84 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
84 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
83 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
82 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
81 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
81 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
80 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
79 Microcap Russell, IWC
79 MidCap Russell, IWR
78 Technology DJ US, IYW
77 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 Bond, TIPS, TIP
76 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
75 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
74 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
74 Mexico Index, EWW
73 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
72 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
71 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
71 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
70 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
69 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
69 Bond, Corp, LQD
68 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
67 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
66 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
66 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
65 Singapore Index, EWS
64 Industrial SPDR, XLI
64 India PS, PIN
63 Canada Index, EWC
62 Financial Preferred, PGF
61 Technology SPDR, XLK
61 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
60 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
59 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
59 Dividend SPDR, SDY
58 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
57 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
56 Growth VIPERs, VUG
56 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
55 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
54 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
54 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
53 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
52 Networking, IGN
51 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
51 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
50 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
49 Biotech SPDR, XBI
49 South Korea Index, EWY
48 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
47 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
46 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
46 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
45 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
44 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
44 South Africa Index, EZA
43 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
42 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
41 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
41 Value VIPERs, VTV
40 Latin Am 40, ILF
39 Russia MV, RSX
39 Emerging Markets, EEM
38 Financials VIPERs, VFH
37 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
36 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
36 Sweden Index, EWD
35 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
34 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
34 Financial DJ US, IYF
33 Hong Kong Index, EWH
32 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
31 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
31 China 25 iS, FXI
30 Health Care SPDR, XLV
29 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
29 Financial SPDR, XLF
28 Water Resources, PHO
27 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
26 Dividend International, PID
26 Utilities SPDR, XLU
25 Financial Services DJ, IYG
24 Japan Index, EWJ
24 Taiwan Index, EWT
23 Brazil Index, EWZ
22 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
21 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
21 Materials SPDR, XLB
20 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
19 Energy VIPERs, VDE
19 Energy SPDR, XLE
18 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
17 Switzerland Index, EWL
16 Energy DJ, IYE
16 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
15 Global 100, IOO
14 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
14 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
13 United Kingdom Index, EWU
12 Energy Global, IXC
11 Commodity Tracking, DBC
11 Netherlands Index, EWN
10 Australia Index, EWA
9 EAFE Index, EFA
9 Germany Index, EWG
8 Belgium Index, EWK
7 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
6 European VIPERs, VGK
5 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4 France Index, EWQ
3 EMU Europe Index, EZU
2 Austria Index, EWO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
