The Commodity Specialist view – Early 2010 negative signals in the CRB Index called for a bearish stance, with the Feb/Apr recovery attempt viewed as temporary. A subsequent resumption of the bear move has now seen the Index approaching an interesting technical support area where support, and a rebound, is likely.
- MONTHLY CHART:
The Index failed to overcome resistance from around the 284.61 Jan-07 low – this was marked by a negative Key Reversal Month in Jan, heralding a corrective phase.
The current assumption is that rallies will continue to be short-lived for now. - DAILY CHART:
The Index earlier tried and failed to overcome resistance at 280.00.
Violation of the 38.2% support level and 256.89 Feb low strengthened the bear case, but the downward run could soon be interrupted by support in the 244.00/239.00 area. This includes an equality target (293.75/256.89 downleg extended off the Apr 280.83 high), bear channel base projection, and a lower Fibo projection.
S/term support is likely around here, although rally attempts should not be long-lasting. Beyond the 256.89 Feb low note resistance offered by the 266.64 26-Mar low
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