The FX Trader’s view – From the early March high the slide back in EUR/GBP has turned from what might have been a simple correction in a larger bull move into an early indication of a medium term bear phase, though not, as yet, confirmed.
- WEEKLY CHART:
The long term 38.2% level has once more been violated, together with certain support lines that include the one shown.
This initial bear break still needs the confirmation from a break of the Jun-09 low just under 0.8400.
Next focus would then be on the 0.8168 50% pullback level, but with lower levels likely thereafter. - DAILY CHART:
The cross has now neared the Jun-09 low, which lies just above the bear channel base projection.
S/term support around here would not surprise, but recovery attempts are not currently expected to be long-lasting – already recent rallies have struggled near the 0.8800 level, and the higher 0.9000 area (channel top) does not look achievable now.
Lower bear projections will be calculated following a clear break of the 0 8400 area; meanwhile we keep in mind the 0.8168 50% level from the long term chart.
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