For the following major indexes, absolute price fell below 200-day SMAs on 5/20/10: Dow-Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500 Composite, and S&P 100.

For the following Major Stock Sectors, absolute price fell below 200-day SMAs on 5/20/10: Consumer Staples, Technology, Utilities, and Financial. Materials and Energy fell further below 200-day SMAs.

U.S. Treasury Bond futures price jumped up to a new 13-month high of 124.27 on 5/20/10 and remains bullish.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 14-month high of 47.25 on 5/20/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

Although the market is looking oversold for the short term, that does not necessarily mean that the downside reaction is over. Contrary opinion alone is insufficient.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.37% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
7.35% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
4.32% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
3.83% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
3.53% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
8.61% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.05% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
6.79% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
7.59% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
2.11% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.97% , IEF , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
1.21% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
3.81% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
0.58% , TJX , TJX
0.12% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.53% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-3.35% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
-6.00% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-3.38% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-4.99% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-2.70% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-3.39% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
-2.91% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
-5.19% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
-4.86% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
-4.18% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
-3.55% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
-7.16% , CMA , COMERICA
-3.66% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
-6.01% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-3.68% , PIV , Value Line Timeliness MidCap Gr, PIV
-5.84% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-5.99% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
-4.63% , PWP , Value MidCap Dynamic PS, PWP
-3.33% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-5.60% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-6.34% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-3.36% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-4.16% , RFG , Growth MidCap S&P 400, RFG
-8.01% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
-4.81% , JKJ , SmallCap Core iS M, JKJ
-8.39% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-6.97% , CMI , CUMMINS
-2.69% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-6.18% , PH , PARKER HANNIFIN
-3.78% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-6.03% , WAG , WALGREEN
-3.82% , TMW , Wilshire 5000 ST TM, TMW
-4.87% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
-7.22% , ASH , ASHLAND
-3.53% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.99% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-6.56% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
-3.44% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
-3.43% , PWC , LargeCap Blend Dynamic PS, PWC
-7.62% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 31.03. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral. Support 28.44 and 28.15. Resistance 32.41, 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose to a 7-month high on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLP fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Support 24.95. Resistance 27.83, 27.95, 28.20, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) crossed back above both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Support 21.24 and 20.64. Resistance 23.27, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 28.53 and 27.96. Resistance 30.83, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 2-month highs 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU fell back below its 200-day SMA on 5/18/10 and remains neutral. Support 25.76. Resistance 30.59, 30.91, 31.64 and 32.08.

Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell further below its 2-month lows 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLF fell below its 2-month lows 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Support 13.51. Resistance 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell below 10-month lows on 5/20/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed below the 200-day SMA on 5/14/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.48. Resistance 33.06, 35.47, and 37.56.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 5/20/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLE fell below 10-month lows on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Support 51.34. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/20/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell to a 8-month low on 5/20/10.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/18/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/20/10 and is below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio crossed below its 50-day simple moving average on 5/19/10 thereby turning neutral again. Absolute price of the NASDAQ price fell back below its 50-day SMA on 5/13/10 and remains neutral.

Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) rose above 2-month highs on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWF fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral.

Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of IWD fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10 and remains neutral.

The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) lost a little upside momentum since 5/13/10 but remains bullish. Absolute price of RSP lost upside momentum since 4/26/10 and remains neutral.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 22 months on 5/12/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below its 200-day SMAs on 5/19/10 and remains neutral.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains bullish. Absolute price of IWM fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/14/10 and is now neutral.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) lost a upside momentum since 4/26/10 but remains bullish. Absolute price of MDY also lost upside momentum since 4/26/10 and remains neutral.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 8-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. The short-term trend is down but oversold. Support 67.90 and 65.05. Resistance 78.81, 81.29, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract price pulled back after setting a new all-time high at 1249.7 on 5/14/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the long term. Support 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance: 1249.7.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) fell below 2-month lows and both 50 & 200 SMAs on 5/20/10 and is now bearish. Absolute price fell below 3-week lows on 5/20/10 and is neutral.

Silver/Gold Ratio turned bearish on 5/17/10 when it crossed below both 50- and 200-day SMAs, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA.

Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/17/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 2.8525 and 2.811. Resistance 3.2675, 3.3225, 3.795 and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 13-month high of 124.27 on 5/20/10 and remains bullish. Support 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 125.03 and 130.31..

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) fell below 8-month lows on 5/20/10 and remains neutral. .

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) fell below 6-month lows on 5/20/10 but still remains neutral for the intermediate-term trend. This implies that investors are choosing somewhat less inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP also remains bullish.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved further above 12-month highs on 5/18/10 and remains bullish. Support 85.46, 83.07, 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 89.71 and 92.53.

The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 43.8% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 5/192/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio fell to 1.77, down from 1.91 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio has fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.

VIX Fear Index rose to a 14-month high of 46.37 on 5/20/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

VXN Fear Index rose to a 14-month high of 47.25 on 5/20/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.

ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.96 on 5/20/10, its highest level of the year. A high level indicates bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.

The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price fell below its 200-day SMA on 5/20/10. SPX is looking oversold for the short term, but that does not necessarily mean the downside reaction is over. The S&P fell more than 11% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/20/10 at 1071.56, based on closing prices. Support 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1173.57, 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

2.11% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.97% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.53% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.18% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.12% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.01% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.09% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.22% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.68% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.97% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.55% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.84% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.98% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-2.07% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-2.48% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-2.90% Germany Index, EWG
-2.91% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.92% Hong Kong Index, EWH
-2.96% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-2.98% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-2.98% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-2.99% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-3.00% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-3.04% Malaysia Index, EWM
-3.05% Financial Preferred, PGF
-3.08% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-3.08% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-3.08% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-3.14% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-3.14% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-3.16% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-3.18% Technology SPDR, XLK
-3.19% France Index, EWQ
-3.24% Global 100, IOO
-3.39% Singapore Index, EWS
-3.43% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-3.44% European VIPERs, VGK
-3.47% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-3.48% EAFE Index, EFA
-3.48% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-3.49% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-3.51% China 25 iS, FXI
-3.52% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-3.53% Netherlands Index, EWN
-3.58% India PS, PIN
-3.59% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-3.60% Technology DJ US, IYW
-3.60% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-3.61% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-3.62% Spain Index, EWP
-3.62% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-3.64% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-3.64% Switzerland Index, EWL
-3.67% Belgium Index, EWK
-3.67% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-3.70% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-3.71% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-3.71% Italy Index, EWI
-3.73% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-3.73% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-3.75% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-3.77% Taiwan Index, EWT
-3.78% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-3.78% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-3.81% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-3.85% Energy Global, IXC
-3.85% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-3.88% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-3.89% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-3.91% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-3.91% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-3.95% Value VIPERs, VTV
-3.98% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-3.99% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-4.03% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-4.04% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-4.05% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
-4.07% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-4.08% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-4.10% Dividend International, PID
-4.13% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-4.14% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-4.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-4.23% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-4.25% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-4.25% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-4.26% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-4.34% Energy DJ, IYE
-4.35% Latin Am 40, ILF
-4.35% MidCap Russell, IWR
-4.35% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-4.37% Networking, IGN
-4.42% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-4.47% Energy SPDR, XLE
-4.48% Austria Index, EWO
-4.51% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-4.52% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-4.53% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-4.54% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-4.54% Materials SPDR, XLB
-4.55% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-4.56% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-4.57% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-4.57% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-4.61% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-4.63% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-4.65% Financial SPDR, XLF
-4.67% Mexico Index, EWW
-4.67% Water Resources, PHO
-4.69% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-4.69% Financial DJ US, IYF
-4.73% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-4.75% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-4.81% Brazil Index, EWZ
-4.83% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
-4.87% Canada Index, EWC
-4.91% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-4.97% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-4.98% Emerging Markets, EEM
-5.03% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-5.03% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-5.06% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-5.12% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-5.13% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-5.41% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-5.46% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-5.66% Microcap Russell, IWC
-5.81% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-6.00% Indonesia MV, IDX
-6.01% Sweden Index, EWD
-6.02% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-6.32% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-6.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
-6.39% Australia Index, EWA
-6.42% South Korea Index, EWY
-6.73% South Africa Index, EZA
-6.86% Russia MV, RSX