Monday started the day very weak and until 12:00 it looked like the day would be blood red. At noon the market started to crawl off the lows and finished the day green across the broader markets. The volume fell off from Friday’s and left the market a little lackluster even on the reversal. The TRIN closed neutral at .94 and the VIX with a big shooting star on the day closed at 30.84. Oil fell $1.53 to $70.08 a barrel and gold down 50 cents to $1227.30 an ounce.
With Fridays close and such extremes on the TRIN and VIX we looked for the early bounce, which just did not come in. It was the noon reversal that brought the market some buyers, that is unusual to see a 3 TRIN close and no bounce, but the overnight session took some the wind out of that sail and just never gave us that pop. Very disappointing because it is usually an easy trade and gives a lot of opportunity for positioning on the day. Instead of being easy the bus was hard to find at times and very choppy along the way. The daily candle on the broader markets is a nice hammer or doji depending on which you look at. That is possibly support and reversal candles in place for this market. I would feel better about them had the market brought in volume for those strong candles, but now we look for confirmation with a higher closing candle to follow.
The strong close didn’t have the volume or power I would like to see for follow through into Tuesday morning. However, good news out of the economic data could help to see a stronger opening. The 50dma’s are still over head and confirmation of Monday’s support candle is needed with follow through into Tuesday. Futures did test the daily pivot and did not test the weekly. Which leaves those still overhead with the ES at 1143.75, NQ 1921.25 and TF 690.80.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 12:20 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Core CPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 ECB President Trichet Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 7:00pm FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ANF, DKS, HD, KIRK, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, DY, HPQ. Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell AMAT, ADSK, HOTT, KONG, NTES, PETM, SNPS. Thursday pre market PLCE, CSC, DLTR, GME, ROST, SPLS, TGT, TTC, WSM, and after the bell BRCD, DELL, GPS, INTU, MRVL, SHLD, SKIL, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, HIBB and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.38 at 2354.23. Support: 2339.35, 2310.02, 2280.69, 2265.64 fills gap. Resistance: 2384.63, 2420.98 50dma, 2432.87, 2460.48, 2535.28
