The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices.
On Monday, stocks rebounded strongly from last week’s downside shakeout.
The following indexes crossed back above 50-day or 200-day simple moving averages and are in either neutral or bullish position.
Financial (XLF) Stock Sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/10/10, and so it is bullish again.
Materials (XLB) Stock Sector absolute price of XLB crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
Energy (XLE) Stock Sector absolute price crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
Health Care (XLV) Stock Sector absolute price crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
Utilities (XLU) Stock Sector absolute price crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now neutral.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.06% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
4.73% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.04% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
5.53% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
4.81% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
13.45% , DYN , DYNEGY
4.70% , IGE , Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
4.88% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
9.52% , TBH , Telebras HOLDRS, TBH
4.89% , ONEQ , Growth LargeCap NASDAQ Fidelity, ONEQ
10.32% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
14.55% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
4.19% , OEF , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
3.22% , IYZ , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
8.49% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
5.46% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
11.13% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
4.79% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
12.38% , AFL , AFLAC
7.63% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
4.36% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
8.29% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
9.28% , HOG , HARLEY DAVIDSON
10.84% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
4.35% , ELV , Value Large Cap DJ, ELV
5.25% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
5.84% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
6.19% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
8.55% , NKE , NIKE STK B
4.55% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
2.25% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
3.18% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
5.93% , IOO , Global 100, IOO
7.25% , ASH , ASHLAND
4.98% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
3.88% , FNM , FANNIE MAE
5.52% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
7.86% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
4.68% , IWW , Value LargeCap Russell 3000, IWW
12.30% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.81% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
-3.73% , MHP , MCGRAW HILL
-2.12% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
-2.46% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-5.06% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-1.84% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-1.80% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-0.82% , BMY , BRISTOL MYERS
-0.13% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 4/26/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLY fell to a 2-month low and fell below the 50-day SMA on 5/6/10. So, price trend is now neutral. Support 31.03, 31.66, 30.99, 29.90, 29.25, 28.66, 28.21 and 26.62. Resistance and 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Overweight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 18-month highs on 4/29/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLI fell to a 2-month low and fell below the 50-day SMA on 5/6/10. So, price trend is now neutral. Support 28.44 and 28.15. Resistance 33.46, 34.24, 34.50, and 35.00.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) gave a bearish signal when it fell below 2-week lows and both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages on 4/30/10. Absolute price fell to a 3-month low and tested the 200-day SMA on 5/6/10. Price trend is now neutral. Support 22.66, 22.52, 21.30, 20.71, 20.46 and 20.09. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) crossed above its 50-day simple moving average on 5/10/10, and so it is bullish again. Absolute price of XLF fell to a 2-month low and tested the 200-day SMA on 5/6/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 15.52, 15.37, and 15.12. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) rose above the 50-day SMA on 5/6/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price of XLP fell to an 8-month low and tested the 200-day SMA on 5/6/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 24.95, 24.48, 24.02, and 22.63. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) fell to its lowest level in 9 months on 5/5/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLB crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral. Support 29.48, and 28.95. Resistance 35.47 and 37.56.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 5/5/10, and so it is bearish again. Absolute price of XLE crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 52.29 and 51.34. Resistance 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Health Care (XLV) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLV crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 28.53 and 27.96. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) rose above 6-week highs on 5/4/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLU crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10. Price trend remains neutral. Support 25.76, 25.52, and 24.96. Resistance 31.30, 31.64 and 32.08.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell to a 12-month low on 5/6/10. EEM/SPY trend turned bearish on 4/16/10, according to strict moving average analysis. Absolute price of EEM fell below 3-month lows on 5/6/10 and, following a 2-day recovery, now is neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 5/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of EFA fell below 10-month lows on 5/6/10 and is bearishly below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio fell below its 50-day simple moving average on 5/6/10 rose and remains neutral. Absolute price of the NASDAQ fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
Growth Stock/Value Stock Relative Strength Ratio (IWF/IWD) fell to a 5-month low on 4/14/10 but has stabilized somewhat since. IWF/IWD remains below both 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Absolute price of IWF fell below 8-week lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
Russell 1000 Value ETF Relative Strength Ratio (IWD/SPY) rose above 7-month highs on 5/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of IWD closed below 8-week lows on 5/6/10.
The S&P 500 Equally Weighted ETF Relative Strength Ratio (RSP/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish. Absolute price of RSP fell below 2-month lows and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below the lows of the previous 21 months on 4/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of OEX fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish. Absolute price of IWM fell below 2-month lows and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) crossed above the 50-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish. Absolute price of MDY fell below 2-month lows and fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/6/10 and remains neutral.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price fell below 2-month lows on 5/7/10 and remains neutral. Oil appears to be in a correction phase for the short term. Longer term, Oil remains bullish. Support 74.51, 72.60, 69.50, 68.59 and 65.05. Resistance 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose above the highs of the previous 6 months on 5/7/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend for the intermediate-term. Longer term, Gold remains bullish. Support 1156.2, 1124.3, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9 and 989.3. Resistance 1226.4.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-month highs on 4/30/10 and remains bullish.
Silver/Gold Ratio bounced but remains below 50- and 200- day SMAs and remains bearish.
Copper nearest futures price fell below the lows of the previous 3 months on 5/5/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short-term. Copper entered a correction phase since peaking at 3.68 on 4/12/10. Longer term, Copper remains bullish. Strength in Copper suggests renewed hope about prospects for the world economy, while weakness suggests doubts. Support 3.29, 3.1505, 3.034, and 2.811. Resistance 3.795 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price jumped up to a new 12-month high on 5/6/10. Support 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04 and 112.15. Resistance 124.16, and 125.03.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and remains neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) crossed above the 200-day SMA on 5/10/10 and is now bullish. This means investors are not clamoring for inflation protection. Absolute price of TIP rose above 22-month highs on 5/6/10 and remains bullish.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price moved above 12-month highs on 5/6/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish trend. Support 81.74, 80.14, 79.73, 79.61, 78.83, 78.20, 76.74 and 75.90. Resistance 85.46, 87.22 and 89.71.
The Art of Contrary Thinking: The various surveys of investor sentiment are best considered as background factors. The majority of investors can be right for a long time before a major trend finally changes course. The Art of Contrary Thinking is best used together with more precise market timing tools.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.0% Bulls versus 18.7% Bears as of 5/5/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 2.99, down from 3.00 the previous week. The current Bull/Bear ratio is near its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.51, and the mean is 1.57.
VIX Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.15 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
VXN Fear Index rose to a 13-month high of 42.03 on 5/7/10. A high and rising VIX suggests increasing bearish sentiment. VXN measures NASDAQ Volatility using a method comparable to that used for VIX.
ISEE Call/Put Ratio fell to .059 on 5/7/10, a low level that indicates bearish sentiment. Its 2-year mean is 1.20, and its typical range is 0.69 to 1.71, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
CBOE Put/Call Ratio rose to 0.80 on 5/7/10, a high level that indicates moderately bearish sentiment. The 2-year mean is 0.70, and the typical range is 0.44 to 0.96, which represents two standard deviations from the mean.
The Dow Theory again confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX) absolute price fell below 2-month lows on 5/6/10 and remains neutral. The S&P fell more than 8% from its peak on 4/23/10 at 1217.28 to its low on 5/7/10 at 1,110.88, based on closing prices. Minor corrections of between 5% and 10% are typical in bull markets. Support 1065.79, 1044.50, 1029.38, 1019.95, 1012.42, and 1008.55. Resistance 1219.80, 1220.03 and 1228.74.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1065.79, low of 5/6/2010
1044.50, low of 2/5/2010
1029.38, low of 11/2/2009
1019.95, low of 10/2/2009
1012.42, Gann 37.5% of 2009-2010 range
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
14.55% Spain Index, EWP
11.72% Italy Index, EWI
11.09% Austria Index, EWO
10.65% Russia MV, RSX
10.65% Indonesia MV, IDX
10.10% Belgium Index, EWK
10.07% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
9.68% Sweden Index, EWD
9.53% EMU Europe Index, EZU
9.01% France Index, EWQ
9.00% Netherlands Index, EWN
8.49% European VIPERs, VGK
8.25% Brazil Index, EWZ
7.64% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
7.63% Australia Index, EWA
7.54% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
7.29% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
7.20% Emerging Markets, EEM
7.13% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
6.99% Latin Am 40, ILF
6.82% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6.78% REIT Wilshire, RWR
6.76% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
6.60% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
6.59% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
6.56% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
6.54% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
6.48% EAFE Index, EFA
6.40% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
6.40% South Korea Index, EWY
6.37% India Earnings WTree, EPI
6.13% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
6.12% India PS, PIN
6.10% South Africa Index, EZA
5.97% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
5.97% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
5.95% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
5.93% Global 100, IOO
5.90% Water Resources, PHO
5.88% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
5.84% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
5.80% Mexico Index, EWW
5.79% Microcap Russell, IWC
5.73% Industrial SPDR, XLI
5.62% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
5.57% Financial SPDR, XLF
5.57% Financials VIPERs, VFH
5.56% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
5.55% Financial DJ US, IYF
5.53% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
5.52% China 25 iS, FXI
5.48% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
5.48% Financial Services DJ, IYG
5.46% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
5.45% Dividend International, PID
5.39% United Kingdom Index, EWU
5.38% Singapore Index, EWS
5.35% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
5.35% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
5.33% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
5.31% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
5.29% Germany Index, EWG
5.26% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
5.25% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
5.22% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
5.21% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
5.20% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
5.18% MidCap Russell, IWR
5.17% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
5.17% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
5.17% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
5.12% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
5.11% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
5.07% Networking, IGN
5.05% Technology DJ US, IYW
5.01% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
4.85% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
4.85% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
4.75% Materials SPDR, XLB
4.70% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
4.65% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
4.60% Technology SPDR, XLK
4.60% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
4.59% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
4.59% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
4.59% Switzerland Index, EWL
4.56% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
4.56% Growth VIPERs, VUG
4.53% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
4.50% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
4.48% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
4.46% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4.40% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
4.36% Canada Index, EWC
4.34% Value VIPERs, VTV
4.31% Taiwan Index, EWT
4.27% Energy SPDR, XLE
4.19% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
4.18% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
4.17% Malaysia Index, EWM
4.16% Energy Global, IXC
4.16% Energy VIPERs, VDE
4.15% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
4.11% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
4.11% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
4.07% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
3.96% Energy DJ, IYE
3.91% Dividend SPDR, SDY
3.90% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.83% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
3.83% Biotech SPDR, XBI
3.55% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
3.54% Hong Kong Index, EWH
3.38% Financial Preferred, PGF
3.37% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
3.22% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
3.18% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
3.09% Utilities SPDR, XLU
3.06% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.92% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
2.82% Japan Index, EWJ
2.69% Health Care SPDR, XLV
2.63% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
2.53% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.93% Commodity Tracking, DBC
1.87% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
1.26% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
1.00% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.63% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.61% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.21% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.13% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.28% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.59% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.76% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-2.07% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
