Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 30, 2010.
4-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 113 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 REIT Wilshire, RWR
95 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Microcap Russell, IWC
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, April 30, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
98 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
97 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
96 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
96 REIT Wilshire, RWR
95 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
94 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
94 Microcap Russell, IWC
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
92 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
91 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
91 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
90 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
89 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
89 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
88 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
87 Industrial SPDR, XLI
86 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
86 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
85 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
84 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
84 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
83 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
82 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
81 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
81 MidCap Russell, IWR
80 South Korea Index, EWY
79 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
79 Malaysia Index, EWM
78 Russia MV, RSX
77 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
76 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
76 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
75 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
74 Networking, IGN
74 Silver Trust iS, SLV
73 Sweden Index, EWD
72 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
71 India Earnings WTree, EPI
71 Mexico Index, EWW
70 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
69 Technology DJ US, IYW
69 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
68 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
67 Singapore Index, EWS
66 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
66 South Africa Index, EZA
65 Canada Index, EWC
64 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
64 Financials VIPERs, VFH
63 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
62 Latin Am 40, ILF
61 Dividend SPDR, SDY
61 Growth VIPERs, VUG
60 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
59 India PS, PIN
59 Technology SPDR, XLK
58 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
57 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
56 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
56 Financial DJ US, IYF
55 Biotech SPDR, XBI
54 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
54 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
53 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
52 Water Resources, PHO
51 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
51 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
50 Emerging Markets, EEM
49 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
49 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
48 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
47 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
46 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
46 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
45 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
44 Financial Services DJ, IYG
44 Value VIPERs, VTV
43 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
42 Financial SPDR, XLF
41 Brazil Index, EWZ
41 Australia Index, EWA
40 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
39 Materials SPDR, XLB
39 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
38 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
37 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
36 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
36 Taiwan Index, EWT
35 Energy VIPERs, VDE
34 Energy SPDR, XLE
34 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
33 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
32 Financial Preferred, PGF
31 Energy DJ, IYE
31 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
30 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
29 Dividend International, PID
29 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
28 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
27 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
26 Japan Index, EWJ
26 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
25 Netherlands Index, EWN
24 Energy Global, IXC
24 Bond, Corp, LQD
23 Hong Kong Index, EWH
22 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
21 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
21 Switzerland Index, EWL
20 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Global 100, IOO
19 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
18 Bond, TIPS, TIP
17 Commodity Tracking, DBC
16 United Kingdom Index, EWU
16 Utilities SPDR, XLU
15 EAFE Index, EFA
14 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
14 China 25 iS, FXI
13 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
12 Germany Index, EWG
11 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
11 Austria Index, EWO
10 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
9 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
9 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
8 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
7 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
6 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
6 Belgium Index, EWK
5 European VIPERs, VGK
4 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
4 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
3 France Index, EWQ
2 EMU Europe Index, EZU
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
