The Commodity Specialist view – The initial recovery in NYMEX Natural Gas from a 2009 low point came to a halt early this year, on the continuation chart. Subsequent pullback has now encountered interesting support, offering the chance for recovery, but bulls still await the required signals.
- DAILY CHART – CONTINUATION:
On the Continuation chart a significant low point was seen in Sep-09 (though not apparent on the front month charts).
It produced a Key Reversal Month, and heralded initial recovery.
This year’s pullback has now found clear support from the 61.8% retracement – now see the Daily May-10 chart. - DAILY CHART – MAY-10:
In the Commodity Specialist Guide we will shortly be switching to the Jun-10 contract, but we stick with May here.
S/term support has emerged from around the 3.850 1.618 swing projection (off prior Dec/Jan rally), close to 61.8% support on the Continuation chart.
At this stage a recovery through the falling return line, i.e. a close above the recent 4.3340 high and coinciding 23.6% level, would sideline the bears s/term, and signal a recovery attempt underway.
There could well be an initial struggle to clear resistance offered by the 4.656 03-Dec low, where the 38.2% level resides too, but there could be later scope for a push higher towards the next key overhead level around the 5.110 28-Jan low, where 61.8% and a Fibo projection (not shown) are also present. Meanwhile we must await the signal.
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