US Treasury Market Review
U.S. Treasuries saw the 10-year yield finished up 4 basis points at 3.86%.
Commodities Review
Crude Oil (Jun) settled +$1.62 at $86.73/brl. The contract change tacks on nearly $1 to the less active $85.84/brl May close. OPEC Lowers 2010 Demand Expectations Slightly. Crude Oil Inventories Unexpectedly Slip as API’s Total Suggested; Gasoline Unexpectedly Declined Also as API Suggested; Demand Slowed a Bit Recently But Picks Up in the Latest Week According to the Total Supplied Readings.
GOLD settled +$6.20 to $1,159.60/oz.
Reuters/Jefferies CRB Futures Price Index +2.61 to 279.96. To view chart: (http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html?s=NYBOT_CR&t=&a=&w=&v=d12). Lumber Leading Index continues to improve.
International Review
* Tokyo Nikkei 225 (+68.89 / +0.61%)
* Hong Kong Hang Seng (+36.39 / +0.16%)
* Australia S&P/ASX 200 (+7.20 / +0.14%)
(6:00 AM)
* UK FTSE 100 (-16.84 / -0.29%)
* France CAC 40 (-18.71 / -0.46%)
* Germany DAX (-28.54 / -0.45%)
FOREX
AUD/USD rally stalls at 0.9360.
USD/CAD rebounds to 0.9990 off Asia trading low.
EUR/USD pares gains and drops below 1.3600.
GBP/USD, capped at 1.5520, drops to session low at 1.5460.
Soros sees risk to euro without German shift.
(6:00 AM)
* Dollar / Yen (-0.13 to 93.10)
* Euro / Dollar (-0.0125 to 1.3529)
Looking Ahead…
Thursday, April 15
Earnings: AMD -0.10 ALNC 0.50 ATR 0.51 STST 0.24 BLX 0.40 PIR 0.31 CBK -0.27 CBSH 0.53 CBST 0.36 DTLK 0.01 FCS 0.23 GOOG 6.56 ISRG 1.68 INXI 0.00 PBCT 0.08 PPG 0.63 SFNC 0.34 SLP 0.03 TNB 0.53 TITN 0.26 VMI 0.88
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Initial Unemployment Claims; 4:30PM Money Supply.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM NY Mtfg Survey for April.
Economic Indicator: 9:00AM TICS Capital Flows for February.
Economic Indicator: 9:15AM Ind’l Prod for March.
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM Philly Fed Idx for April.
Economic Indicator: 1:00PM NAHB Sentiment for April.
Friday, April 16
Earnings: ASX 0.08 BAC 0.09 CPC 0.20 EVBS 0.12 FHN -0.16 GCI 0.41 GE 0.16 GPC 0.61 KNL 0.13 LPL 0.50 MAT -0.03 MGN -0.08 BPOP -0.25 PNRG -0.25 PNRG -0.25 SBSI 0.50 UTEK 0.05 VIRC -0.16
Economic Indicator: 10:30AM Weekly Leading Index.
Economic Indicator: 8:30AM Housing Starts/Permits for March.
Economic Indicator: 9:55AM Univ of Mich Sent-Prel for April.
Economic Indicator: 5:00AM Eurozone CPI, European Monster Employment.
Monday, April 19
Earnings: ATX -0.01 ABCB -0.21 ACTG 0.02 AFFX -0.1 Y 3.2 AB 0.5 EPAX -0.32 AMLN -0.29 ANDS -0.17 ACI 0.08 AGO 0.79 ATHR 0.51 AUO 0.14 BOH 0.64 BBX -0.84 BJS 0.08 BSX 0.08 EPAY 0.23 BBNK -0.08 BRO 0.31 BCR 1.24 CADE -0.13 CFNB 0.29 CBKN -0.06 CCBG -0.16 CFNL 0.12 CASS 0.47 CF 1.5 CHFC 0.1 C 0 CSBC -0.18 COBZ -0.1 CNS 0.22 COLB -0.01 CNX 0.77 CLB 1.24 CR 0.52 CCK 0.28 CVBF 0.13 CYBI -0.03 DNBK 0.13 DECK 0.91 DCTH -0.14 DAL -0.23 DEL 0.1 DYAX -0.15 ECBE -0.4 LLY 1.1 ECA 0.32 WIRE 0.06 ELGX -0.02 EPIQ 0.17 EFX 0.56 ELS 1.02 EXPO 0.37 EZPW 0.43 FFKT -0.37 FISI 0.32 BUSE -0.02 FDEF 0.1 FFIN 0.61 FSGI -0.12 FWV N/A FBMI 0.05 FFIC 0.26 FELE 0.32 GHL 0.46 HAL 0.25 HNBC 0.08 HAS 0.16 HBNC 0.45 ICUI 0.41 IEX 0.42 IKAN 0.02 ILMN 0.19 IBCP N/A INSU 0.3 IDC 0.33 IBM 1.93 JJSF 0.46 JAH 0.2 JBLU 0 KMT 0.26 KLAC 0.35 NITE 0.36 KT N/A FSTR 0.26 LAB 0.08 LBAI 0.1 LRCX 0.82 LHO 0.03 LXK 0.88 LNCR 0.6 LMT 1.61 LNET -0.13 MTB 0.98 MCBC -0.57 MSFG 0.04 MCD 0.96 MMR -0.1 WFR 0.05 MPB 0.1 MBRG 0.1 MSL 0.05 MTX 0.66 MTSC 0.32 MLI 0.24 MFSF -0.07 NTY 0.93 NVR 5.68 PKG 0.11 PRK 0.91 PENN 0.22 PNFP 0.01 PBNY 0.08 PULB 0.03 QDEL -0.03 RJF 0.41 RCRC 0.13 RLRN 0.18 RNST 0.18 RBCAA 1.3 RCKY -0.19 ROME 0.12 SYBT 0.35 SCSC 0.43 SBCF -0.19 CKH 0.95 SEIC 0.27 SXT 0.46 SHBI 0.15 SIFI 0.05 BSRR 0.2 SOMH 0.09 SGB 0.18 SPF -0.06 STLD 0.26 SCL 1.32 STSA -2 SPWRA 0.07 SGC 0.22 SYMS -0.07 SYNL 0.07 TROW 0.58 TASR 0 TSH 0.79 TDY 0.61 SWK 0.52 NCTY -0.53 TOFC 0.04 TRAD 0.06 TRIB 0.12 UMBF 0.53 UBSH -0.01 UNTY -0.01 UACL 0.11 UVSP 0.12 ULGX -0.02 USG -0.94 VLY 0.18 VDSI 0.06 WERN 0.16 WAL -0.22 WMS 0.49 ZION -0.94
Economic Indicator: 10:00AM: Composite Indexes for March.
Economic Indicator: Japan Confidence.
Tuesday, April 20
Earnings: AOS 0.98 AKS 0.25 ALGT 1.07 ALTR 0.4 AMNB 0.36 APH 0.51 ASTE 0.21 BMI 0.36 BANF 0.51 BK 0.53 BIIB 1.13 EAT 0.41 CHE 0.9 CBAK 0 COH 0.46 CPTS -0.08 CPY 2.16 CREE 0.44 DDRX 0.37 ETN 0.82 EW 0.79 EVR 0.3 FLXS 0.14 FRX 0.83 FULT 0.13 GILD 0.95 GRT 0.2 GS 4.02 HBHC 0.47 HOG 0.24 HOMB 0.34 IBKC 0.65 ITW 0.57 INFN -0.1 JNJ 1.28 JNPR 0.26 LOJN -0.19 MANH 0.21 MI -0.4 MRTN 0.15 MBWM -0.65 VIVO 0.14 NBR 0.21 EDU 0.3 NTRS 0.72 NUVA 0.21 OMC 0.49 PCAR 0.15 PH 0.76 PEBO 0.19 PVSW 0.06 PLXS 0.49 RF -0.27 RNST 0.18 RLI 0.96 STX 0.94 SMI -0.09 SNA 0.52 STT 0.74 SYK 0.78 SVU 0.61 SNV -0.49 AMTD 0.24 TCK 0.51 TSYS 0.06 TPX 0.31 KO 0.74 TSFG -0.49 TSS 0.23 TWIN 0.11 USB 0.34 UAUA -1.08 ULCM 0 UNH 0.69 ECOL 0.12 VASC 0.07 VMW 0.27 VOCS 0.14 WCN 0.34 WFT 0.09 WWW 0.49 WSFS 0.07 XSEL 0.1 YHOO 0.09
Economic Indicator: 7:45AM Weekly retail sales.
Economic Indicator: 9:00AM Canada Bank Meeting.
Economic Indicator: UK CPI, ZEW Confidence.
Wednesday, April 21
Earnings: ABT 0.8 ANCX 0.17 AFFX -0.1 AAI -0.11 ADS 1.34 MO 0.41 AMB 0.31 ACF 0.27 AMGN 1.24 AF 0.11 T 0.54 ATMI 0.2 BANR -0.48 BHLB 0.23 CMG 0.95 CBR 0.05 CTXS 0.4 CNH 0.05 CNS 0.22 COHU 0.03 CMA -0.32 CYH 0.74 CSGP 0.12 CVA 0.01 COV 0.83 DAC 0.24 DST 0.92 ETFC -0.03 EBAY 0.41 ELN -0.05 EMC 0.24 ECA 0.32 EGN 1.59 EQIX 0.45 ESSA 0.11 EUBK -0.65 EXPO 0.37 FFIV 0.54 FBCM -0.11 FNF 0.13 FCFS 0.35 FCF 0.05 FCBC 0.24 FMBI -0.03 FWRD 0.12 FCX 1.94 GENZ 0.34 GGG 0.25 GIFI 0.18 HGRD 0.06 HUBG 0.2 HCBK 0.28 HBAN -0.15 ISIL 0.2 JAKK -0.23 KEY -0.3 KMP 0.44 NITE 0.36 KNX 0.15 LH 1.31 LRCX 0.82 LHO 0.03 LEG 0.19 LUFK 0.43 MAN -0.07 MEG -0.57 MLNX 0.24 MCRI 0.04 MCO 0.44 MS 0.58 NFLX 0.54 NTGR 0.3 NYB 0.29 NEU 2.62 NE 1.34 NVLS 0.4 NVR 5.68 PTV 0.4 PJC 0.54 PTP -0.19 PII 0.46 BPOP -0.2 PWER 0 QCOM 0.56 DGX 0.98 R 0.2 SNDK 0.57 SCSS 0.09 SLM 0.29 STJ 0.68 SFG 1.2 SBUX 0.24 STI -0.59 SIVB 0.38 TIN 0.01 TER 0.23 TCBI 0.19 BA 0.84 MDCO 0.14 THRX -0.29 TNB 0.53 TSCO 0.21 TBI -0.08 TUP 0.62 UNB 0.3 URI -0.61 UTX 0.9 VRTX -0.8 VSI 0.27 VSEC 1.07 WASH 0.3 WFC 0.42 WHG 0.42 WTT 0
Economic Indicator: 7:00AM Weekly Mortgage Applications; 10:30AM Crude Inventories.
Economic Indicator: UK Employment, BOE Minutes, Aussie Job Vacancies.
All Times Eastern
Economics
(4/14)
Mortgage Applications Drop Despite Slip in Rates.
CPI Growth Rates Show a December08 Low But Flatten Out After Nearing the Normal Recovery Average; Service Inflation is Unusually Low.
Retail Sales Growth Rates Rise Above a Normal Recovery.
Business Inventories/Sales Ratio Shows a January09 High But Flattens Out in 2010.
Beige Book: Overall economic activity increased somewhat. Where producers faced cost pressures on inputs, they were largely unable to pass those prices downstream to selling prices..
With economic cycles, the best way that we’ve found to forecast trends is leading indicators, comparing to previous cycles, and the interaction of economic indicators. That this global recession and global recovery has followed so similarly to the 1973-75 cycle is probably because they are both global recessions. The main reason we want to look at the data rather than take the NBER’s suggestion for economic cycle dates is for our comparisons. If we were to have a double dip and they want to call it one recession, that’s fine. For comparisons, it’s definitely two different cycles. Just because the NBER places more value on employment in one cycle and production in another doesn’t mean we have to follow their whims.
Since stocks are just another leading economic indicator, it makes sense that they behave similar to the other leading indicators. One of the biggest users of previous cycles is probably Paul Tudor Jones and his group. If looking at the options data helps point out our relation to 2004, the rest is easy. 1976 is a difficult comparison, because interest rates moving down was a positive where a deflationary period shows promise when interest rates are moving up.
Second Whistleblower Emerges – A Deep Insider’s Walkthru To Silver Market Manipulation.
www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-second-whistleblower-emerges-deep-insiders-walkthru-silver-market-manipulation
Technical Resistance Looms in S&P 500 Index.
vixandmore.blogspot.com/2010/04/technical-resistance-looms-in-s-500.html
Without knowing much about Elliott Wave analysis, one would think such analysts would be targetting 1350 for the S&P since the 3rd move tends to be similar to the first.
Explaining The Unstoppable Momentum Of The Market.
www.tradersnarrative.com/explaining-the-unstoppable-momentum-of-the-market-3944.html
/>
Don’t really know what to make of this or the video? Is everything a fraud these days including the President? (Wayne Allyn Root was, like Obama, a political science major at Columbia who also graduated in 1983. In 2008, Root said of Obama, “I don’t know a single person at Columbia that knew him, and they all know me. I don’t have a classmate who ever knew Barack Obama at Columbia. At the class reunion, our 20th reunion five years ago, who was asked to be the speaker of the class? Me. Obama’s photograph does not appear in the school’s yearbook and Obama consistently declines requests to talk about his years at Columbia , provide school records, or provide the name of any former classmates or friends while at Columbia.”)
Stephanopoulos of ABC news said the same thing during the ’08 campaign. He too was a classmate of BO’s at Columbia class of 1984. He said he never had one class with him. www.independentpoliticalreport.com/2010/02/thomas-sipos-why-wayne-allyn-root-never-met-obama-at-columbia/
Markets (oil price and interest rate growth rates relative to the stock market):
Long term: Neutral 2/8.
Intermediate: Neutral 4/7.
Short-term: Neutral 4/9.
Sectors (basic materials and energy growth rates relative to the other sectors):
Long term: Neutral 9/10.
Intermediate: Neutral 11/11.
Short-term: Neutral 1/12.
