Between the US markets being closed (mostly) on Friday and Europe being closed today, markets a little foggy today. The FOMC is holding an emergency meeting to discuss the discount rate; an interesting move. The treasury Department is holding off on releasing its report on Chinese manipulation of the Yean; it is expected to label the Chinese currency manipulators, which would force the government to take action. Friday’s NFP report was good, but not a shocker. This morning we get the ISM Services Index for March; it is expected to have risen 1.0% to 54.0. We also get pending home sales report for February; I couldn’t find an estimate for that. There’s also a TIPS 10 Year auction today; then 3, 10 and 30 year auctions Tuesday thru Thursday. This should be a decent test of the markets appetite for more of Uncles Sam’s paper. With Europe closed, today may be subdued.
June SP: Should be a Sell day, but might be complicated by the gap higher open. It has been filled, but I’d be wary of a selloff (an Oops trade). Watch the overnight low at 1176.00.
June NASDAQ: All that range for a doji? Watch support at 1959.00.
June Dow: Trying to hold over the double top area, ROC is at a Sell Short day level.
June T Bonds: Gap lower overnight; holding the 3/25 low at 114-26 is key for the bulls. If that holds, 115-17 is the first rally objective.
June Yen: Gapped lower overnight; Oops day? 1.0637 fills in the gap.
June Euro: Sell Short day; testing trend line support at 1.3463. 1.3429 is the next downside target.
June British Pound: It’s overdue for a Sell Short day move, but there’s no sign of one yet today. Friday’s high was 1.5293, reference price for the SS day.
June Canadian Dollar: Another market due for a Sell Short day. Today is cleared the 3/19 high at 9938; use that as the reference price for the SS day.
June Gold: Sell Short day; Friday’s high at 1129.10 is the reference price.
May Silver: Sell Short day, Friday’s high at 18.00 is the reference price.
May Copper: Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; Friday’s high at 360.60 would be the reference price for a Sell Short day move.
May Sugar: Doji, Sell day. 17.24 then 17.74 are rally objectives.
May Coffee: Breakout setup (ID / NR7). It’s trying to break over the upside breakout point of Thursday’s high of 137.95.
May Cotton: Another breakout setup (ID / NR7). The upside breakout point is Wednesday’s high of 81.72. There is also Fib retracement resistance at 81.65.
May Crude Oil: Another Sell Short day by the TTT cycle. It’s currently trading over the last major high at 85.43.
May Natural Gas: It shouldn’t be surprising to see weakness after Thursday’s big strength. Holding 3.984 could help form a bottom.
May Soybeans: Breakout setup (ID and doji). Use Friday’s high and low as breakout points.
May Soymeal: Another breakout setup (ID / NR4 and doji). Use Wednesday’s low at 26.80 as the downside breakout point.
May Wheat: Sell day; looks like a little bear flag.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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