Wednesday closed the day slightly red across the broader indexes. Volume picked up today for a distribution day, although still a narrow range day. The TRIN closed at 1.13 for the third consecutive day over 1.00 for a bearish tone. The VIX closed at 17.59 which was mid range on the day. Gold rallied $8.60 to close at $1114.30 and oil up $1.39 to $83.76 a barrel. After the bell RIMM traded lower on earnings, MU up and BGP up. RIMM could pressure the Nasdaq into Thursday. Also keep in mind we are heading into a three day weekend and Friday will have the Job’s data. We could see a nervous Thursday.
Each index sits on the 10dma in the very slow motion tiny range action we are seeing pull off the highs from March 25th. Banks traded lower for the three days and today had a move back up retracing Tuesday’s losses. Leaving banks to hold onto the 10ma’s with the broader markets, brokers and hardware are in a small channel just under the 10dma and 20dema, the semi’s sit in a tiny range on the 20dema. Last night I pointed out a triangle on the 65 minute charts. The NDX, COMPX, Dow all broke the lower trendline in the final hour of trading today leaving only the SPX just on the trendline. Triangles do often have a fake break so be cautious but we’ll look for continuation of the move.
The futures did test the daily pivots and the weekly on the ES and TF. Which leaves only the NQ to test the weekly at 1948 well below us. Futures sold off on disappointing ADP data but managed to rebound today and then drop in the final hour. This is one crazy market and staying range bound. We closed within yesterdays range and had a big end of day bounce, due to end of month/quarter is likely to be the logic for that. Look for a retest of the days lows, but we still need the weeks lows and a move into 1156.50 in the ES, NQ to 1940 and TF 670 to be a decent pullback. A move through the highs is likely to continue, so don’t try to top pick. That wouldn’t be really prudent at this point with these shallow drops and the market holding up this well even on disappointing news. Early data Thursday will help to set the tone and bring in the volatility. It is the first day of a new month/quarter and leading to a 3 day weekend. Unless the market gets underway early on to ignite some panic, I would expect the day to try to hold range and restart on Monday.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday (globex trading is open until 9:15est). 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
