The Week Ahead: Core inflation fell for the first time since 1982, but this did not stop the Fed from a surprise discount rate hike for banks. Fed chairman Bernanke may elaborate more about this at his semi-annual testimony to Congress beginning on Wednesday. Before that markets will watch two reports on Tuesday: The Case Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence. By Thursday the Durable Goods numbers will come out, and Friday ends the month with a modified Q4 GDP number and existing home sales figures.

Stocks to Watch: Increased enrollment for Medicaid and Medicare from an aging population helped Amerigroup (AGP) with much better than expected profits for Q4 as the stock rose 9%. Education company Apollo Group (APOL) warned quarterly results would not meet expectations because more students were not paying tuition bills. Solar stocks came under pressure when First Solar (FSLR) cast a shadow over the 2010 outlook for its business and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) warned profit margins won’t be as large as predicted. Astrazeneca (AZN) faces two legal battles for product liability and defending patents for its cholesterol drug.

Special Note: The Dow Industrials are retesting the 10,400 approximate resistance level (mentioned here two weeks back) from its recent low made on February 5 at 9835. Volume as expected has consistently dried up to reach this level opposite the strong volume push when it originally broke through this level. The next week or two should decide whether the bulls or bears win this territorial battle. It appears though that the downside potential outweighs the upside potential by as much as 3 to 1 so risks should be taken accordingly.

Market commentary provided by Barry Ward, registered principal, NobleTrading.com, Inc.

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