Tuesday finished the day green on slightly higher volume than Monday for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Giving us a small accumulation day, the problem with this accumulation day is we finished very near the low and volume picked up after the top was in, showing that the second half of the day falling off pulled in participation. The TRIN closed at 1.29, bearish on the day. The VIX closed at 19.06 still falling off slowly each day. Gold closed up $19.20 to $1137.50 and oil up $1.05 to $79.75 a barrel.
The daily candle left the bulls a little weary by day’s end and near the day’s low. At 1:30 the market left a reversal candle on the 65 minute chart to start the move off the highs. The Nasdaq along with the S&P 500 stayed over Mondays highs, the Dow traded just into Monday’s range and closed just points off Monday’s high in range. Every index left a toppy candle with indication of some fatigue after two days of gapping up.
The economic data on Wednesday is likely to set the days tone and help the range to expand. Increased volatility is likely in the second half of the week with the Job’s data coming out on Friday. I expect a weak opening into Wednesday and for the market to pull into the support. ES look for 1108, TF 638 and the NQ 1831, any deeper than that and the market starts erasing the weeks gains. Monday left an open gap that will provide support if the market dips through the supports above. Resistance is still 1860 for the NQ and 1125 for the ES. Futures have not seen the daily pivots for two days, that is very unusual and we’ve not seen the weekly. There is a possible ABC pattern the pullback off the C leg would get us into 38.2% and through the weekly pivots. Without that and if we take out the weeks highs the pattern won’t be in motion, it was an ABC on the February 25th move up we’ve had. Now this can be a five wave move and not an ABC but rejection of this weeks high and a pullback to the levels above would be a symmetrical leg on what we’ve seen for the A and B legs up.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market BIG, BJ, COST, JOYG, and after the bell CRA, FL, NGS, PETM, SIA, VM, VOLC. Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1118.50, weekly pivot 1100.25. Intraday support: 113.75, 1108, 1103.50, 1099, 1095.75, 1092.75, 1090.50. Resistance: 1118.25, 1124.25-1125 78.6%, 1130, 1138.50, 1145.75 fills gap 1/19
