Wednesday, February 17–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web
Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are a firmer U.S. dollar index and firmer U.S. stock index futures prices.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The U.S. dollar index futures are traded on the ICE U.S. Futures exchange. The index is a basket of six major currencies weighted against the greenback. It’s the best proxy for gauging the overall health of the U.S. currency. The dollar index absorbed a profit-taking setback on Tuesday, but no chart damage occurred. The index is still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. If the dollar index continues to trend higher (and there are no early technical clues to suggest otherwise) then most commodity markets will struggle, or at least revert back to their prices reacting to their own supply and demand fundamentals.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today and hit fresh two-week highs. The indexes are making a good recovery from the early-February lows and bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,092.70 and then at 1,080.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the February high of 1,101.50 and then at 1,110.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,094.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,804.25 and then at 1,815.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,790.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,776.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,804.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,250 and then more stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,300 and then at 10,343. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,239
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today. The bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum on their side.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 16/32 and then at Tuesday’s low of 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 117 28/32 and then at Tuesday’s high of 118 1/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 4/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
118 22/32–second pivot point resistance
118 18/32–100-day moving average
118 9/32–first pivot point resistance
118 7/32–18-day moving average
118 4/32–9-day moving average
118 1/32–previous day’s high
117 29/32–previous day’s close
117 21/32–pivot point
117 16/32–4-day moving average
117 8/32–first pivot point support
117 –previous day’s low
116 20/32–second pivot point support
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.10.0 and then at Tuesday’s high of 118.13.5. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 118.00.0 and then at Tuesday’s low of 117.25.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.14.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
118 25/32–second pivot point resistance
118 18/32–first pivot point resistance
118 13/32–previous day’s high
118 10/32–previous day’s close
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 7/32–9-day moving average
118 5/32–pivot point
118 2/32–4-day moving average
118 1/32–18-day moving average
117 30/32–first pivot point support
117 25/32–previous day’s low
117 17/32–second pivot point support
117 13/32–100-day moving average
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today, on a rebound from losses Tuesday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at 80.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.61 and then at 79.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.28. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The March Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3700 and then at 1.3650. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3789 and then at 1.3850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today. Gold bulls have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the February high of $1,126.40 and then at 1,130.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,120.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,116.30. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,120.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls have regained solid upside near-term technical momentum. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the February high of $78.04 and then just above resistance at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $77.00 and then at $76.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $75.22. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading, on a corrective pullback from solid gains on Tuesday. Tuesday’s price action does begin to hint that the seasonal “February Break” phenomenon in the grains may be complete. However, the grains need to show follow-through upside strength today to more strongly suggest near-term market lows are in place.
