I think if we settle this Dow lower on the week, it signals a potential for a test of the 8600 level.
I like the Fibonacci retracement in SH, March beans up to the 964 1/2 level. We seem to have found support at the 900 level, and I think we will have a push up to the 955 area.
Longer term this Summer, I think this will be a good year for the July/Nov bull spread.
Mark Gold likes it, and is looking for a drought this year as well. Now is the time to start thinking about putting that spread on.
Be aware, however, that that spread can be very volatile, and when it turns, it turns and there is often no way out.
In the Corn, I think Mark is right, he is worried about a short term flush out in the corn to the downside. If there are more quality issues when the storage bins thaw out, we could see a mad rush to just dump the corn in the bins.
Longer term this is bullish for corn, because it will get the corn into the hands of the merchandisers and out of the hands of the farmers.
All of my clients seem to be sitting on a ton of unpriced 2009 and 2010 corn. While also being absent, for the most part, a storehouse of beans.
As well, a lot of farmers were looking at planting more corn vs beans b/c of the input/output equation. It looked like corn was going to be a 3 to 1 winner over beans, net after input. That fact should put more pressure on the beans, and fundamentally make that July/Nov spread more attractive longer term.
So, to recap, look for a move to the 1/2 way back move the stock indexes. Measure the March 09 lows and then the recent 10 month highs. 1/2 way back in the Dow is 8600.
1/2 way back in the SP500 is 909. Take the March 09 low at 667.90 and the recent high at 1,150. 483 points of twisted steel and doubt we climbed between last March and just several weeks ago. Now the bloom is off the rose, we failed to maintain the rally, and we are vulnerable to a correction. Will it happen? I am not sure, but if the wheels fall off, and the cable nay sayers of notterdom are right (even a broken clock is right twice a day) we could see a flush to the 1/2 back point.
As always, a good plan is a good plan, but nothing works like pain management. So use your sell stops when you are long and your buy stops when you are short. Important Safety Tip.
Good Trading