Friday, January 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Most veteran traders, including me, do use and espouse the use of protective buy and sell stops in the their trading plans of action. There’s another kind of effective protective stop called the “time” stop. If you’d like to read more about this, send me an email at jim@jimwyckoff.com and I’ll attach a story I wrote on the matter a while back.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on some short covering. Bulls are still hanging on to the slight overall near-term technical advantage. However, price action the past two weeks has produced a short-term downtrend.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,071.00 and then at 1,066.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,090.00 and then at 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 1,785.00 and then at 1,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1,758.00 and then at 1,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,050 and then more stops just below support at 10,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,150 and then at Thursday’s high of 10,210. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls are fading again and need to show more power soon.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at this week’s low of 117 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 118 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 118 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 12/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
118 29/32–second pivot point resistance
118 20/32–100-day moving average
118 16/32–first pivot point resistance
118 15/32–previous day’s high
118 8/32–4-day moving average
118 3/32–previous day’s close
118 3/32–9-day moving average
118 2/32–pivot point
117 21/32–first pivot point support
117 20/32–previous day’s low
117 7/32–second pivot point support
116 30/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 118.09.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.22.5 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 8/32–second pivot point resistance
117 31/32–first pivot point resistance
117 28/32–previous day’s high
117 23/32–4-day moving average
117 23/32–previous day’s close
117 20/32–pivot point
117 19/32–9-day moving average
117 11/32–first pivot point support
117 8/32–previous day’s low
117 5/32–100-day moving average
117 –second pivot point support
116 28/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Prices hit another fresh five-month high overnight. The bulls have upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.33 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.07 and then at 78.75. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 79.09. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5The March Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Prices hit another fresh six-month low overnight. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3911 and then at 1.3900. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.4051. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4028. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Trading has turned choppy. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,086.50 and then at 1,090.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,079.70 and then at this week’s low of $1,073.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,104.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have faded recently. Prices are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.09 and then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $73.31 and then at $73.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.98. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were weaker in overnight trading. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets recently. Also, the supply and demand fundamentals in the grains presently favor the bears. The seasonal “February Break” now appears at hand in the grains.
