Wednesday, January 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web
Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no standout market feature in overnight/early morning trading today, in quieter dealings.
JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
Did you happen to catch the Bob Prechter interview on CNBC Tuesday afternoon? He sounded a bearish warning call for the U.S. stock market. Prechter correctly called the 1987 stock market crash and is an expert on Elliott Wave Theory. On CNBC Prechter also said he was very bullish on the U.S. dollar and very bearish on gold. Now, Prechter has been bearish on the U.S. stock market for quite some time. Still, his comments on CNBC Tuesday afternoon did put some pressure on the stock market. I enjoyed seeing Prechter on TV. It brought back memories of me breaking into the business 25 years ago. Back then, it seemed there were certain market and economic gurus that stood out above the rest and had their periods of fame. Other industry names like Henry Kaufman, Tom DeMark, Linda Bradford Raschke and Richard Dennis come to mind. Today, with the internet the main medium of information dissemination, there are so many so-called gurus out there that no single person seems to stand out above the rest. Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning trading today. Bears have gained some fresh downside near-term technical momentum recently.
S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 1,081.00 and then at 1,075.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,092.10 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,100.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,098.00.
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,802.00 and then at 1,812.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1,789.50 and then at Tuesday’s low of 1,785.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,805.00
Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,100 and then more stops just below support at 10,075. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,150 and then at 10,175. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,171
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it.
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 118 2/32 and then at 117 23/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 116 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 118 23/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 25/32
MARCH U.S. T-Bonds
136 23/32–lifetime high
122 21/32–Previous Month’s high
119 19/32–second pivot point resistance
119 6/32–previous day’s high
119 1/32–first pivot point resistance
118 21/32–100-day moving average
118 19/32–pivot point
118 18/32–4-day moving average
118 14/32–previous day’s close
118 6/32–previous day’s low
118 1/32–first pivot point support
117 23/32–9-day moving average
117 19/32–second pivot point support
116 21/32–18-day moving average
114 26/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.01.5 and then at this week’s high of 118.07.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Tuesday’s low of 117.21.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.21.0
MARCH U.S. T-Notes
123 13/32–lifetime high
119 31/32–previous month’s high
118 16/32–second pivot point resistance
118 7/32–previous day’s high
118 6/32–first pivot point resistance
117 30/32–pivot point
117 29/32–previous day’s close
117 27/32–4-day moving average
117 21/32–previous day’s low
117 20/32–first pivot point support
117 12/32–9-day moving average
117 12/32–second pivot point support
117 4/32–100-day moving average
116 21/32–18-day moving average
114 28/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low
CURRENCIES
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. A minor bullish pennant pattern is still in place on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 78.88 and then at last week’s high of 79.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 78.50 and then at this week’s low of 78.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.99. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
The March Euro is near steady in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh six-month low overnight. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4020 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at 1.4150. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4240. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
GOLD
Gold is weaker in early dealings today. A minor bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,100.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,104.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,088.00 and then at $1,080.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,106.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Bulls have faded recently. Prices are still in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $75.00 and then just above resistance at this week’s high of $75.42. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $74.44 and then more sell stops just below support at $74.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $76.18. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were lower again in overnight trading. Corn futures could not rally on fresh bullish export demand news on Tuesday, which is another bearish clue. Soybeans have a big South American crop looming, which is bearish. And wheat futures traders are seeing U.S. wheat that has slack demand due to strong worldwide competition. Grain market bears also have the overall near-term technical advantage. Significant to serious near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets.