Author: Michael Ferrari, PhD
VP, Applied Technology & Research

Adverse weather continues to plague Mongolia, raising fears of a serious threat to the country’s food and resource supply over the coming months. As we have seen by the recent disaster triggered by the earthquake in Haiti, geophysical events have the ability to disrupt society on an extremely large scale without much in the way of advanced warning, and it is no surprise that the world’s less affluent nations are particularly vulnerable to such tragic consequences.

Evening temperatures in December and early January in several northern Mongolian cities have dropped to -45°C, which is 10-15°C below normal for this time of year (see purple shades on the map below). According to a statement from the United Nations on Monday, the recent extreme cold pattern that has been affecting much of Mongolia’s population in the northcentral and northwestern regions of the country over the last month highlights the risk for nearly 200,000 people to face hunger coupled with more significant poverty before the winter ends.

This recent cold outbreak is actually the second event in recent months to affect the economy of Mongolia. Entering the 2009/10 winter, Mongolia’s stocks of domestic grain staples in the form of both food and livestock feed were low, which is in part related to a severe drought which negatively affected the region’s agricultural production over the summer. As nearly 22% of Mongolia’s economy is directly related to agriculture (and much more when considering related industries), there was already a potential for crisis before the winter commenced as stockpiles were already low. Now, with the recent severe cold pattern to affect the region, it is estimated by the United Nations resident coordinator in Mongolia that the low temperatures and snow have contributed to the loss of nearly 1 million livestock, with more expected as feed supplies are dangerously low. Further, with little or no food and/or energy stockpiles, and travel routes inaccessible resulting from snow and ice, the numbers for potentially affected populations is expected to increase. The next few weeks will be crucial, and while the short term pattern through the first week in February is still expected to remain cold, by the second week, the pattern looks to return to a more seasonal pattern, thereby potentially limiting the numbers of resource-access problems. The map below shows the WTI minimum temperature forecast (vs. the same time last year).

Continue to refer back to the WTI outlook for changes in this situation.