The US Dollar saw some strength overnight as risk exposure markets slid. Talk of bankruptcy for Japan airlines weighed on the Yen, while the Euro was pressured by a report showing slow money supply growth and weak commercial lending. The API inventory report showed a build in crude inventories last week, which is at odds with the expectations for today’s EIA report, which was forecast to show a fall of about 2 mln. barrels last week. Today we get the Chicago PMI report at 8:45 (expected to show a small decline), the EIA report at 9:30, and the results of the 7 year T Note auction at Noon. There’s also a quarterly Hog and Pig Crop report from the USDA at 2 PM. Tomorrow is the last trading day for 2009.
March S&P: Yesterday’s doji makes a directional move more likely today. Yesterday’s action was bearish, and it broke trend line support today. 1117.75 then 1114.25 are objectives for a selloff.
March NASDAQ: Breakout setup today (ID / NR7). Use the overnight low at 1862.25 for a downside breakout point and 1875 on the upside.
March Dow: A doji yesterday and a Sell Short Day signal tell us to watch for a selloff. 10400 is the first objective for a selloff.
March T Bonds: It has found support at the August lows around 114-26, but buyers aren’t very brave yet. Rally objectives are 115-23 and 116-00.
March Yen: The break under the last swing low at 1.0888 is seeing followthrough. There’s a Buy Day coming, but it may wait until tomorrow.
March Euro FX: I’m still anticipating a breakout move after 3 days of dojis. Support is 1.4336, resistance at 1.4381.
March British Pound: Buy Day >, the old swing low at 1.5912 is now resistance.
March Canadian Dollar: Yesterday’s doji could give today a directional move. 9500 is the first objective for a selloff.
Feb. Gold: Today is a “cover breakout sales” day; action is bearish under 1094.90. Next support is at 1090. Resistance for a rally would be 1099 then 1102.
March Silver: Another “cover breakout sales” day. Last week’s low at 1678 is the next downside target.
March Copper: Rallying out of a breakout setup (ID / NR7). The rally reached the first objective at the swing high of 334.40.
March Cocoa: The past two weeks have made an interesting chart pattern. It’s on a Buy Day signal, but an inside day and doji cloud thins. I view 3237 as the reference point for a Buy Day; 3267 is the first resistance.
March Sugar: Rallying on a Buy Day signal. I viewed the old swing high as the Buy Day reference price. Yesterday’s high at 27.49 is the first rally objective.
March Cotton: On a Buy Day signal, but yesterday was an inside day. There’s Fib support at 74.94.
Feb Crude Oil: I generally trade the day of the inventory report as a breakout setup. There’s trend line resistance at 79.29; watch the overnight low at 78.50 then yesterday’s low at 78.02 as downside breakout points.
Feb Natural Gas: Is this topping action or just forming a channel as it consolidates? There’s trend line support at 5.780. I view the swing low at 5.588 (12/22) as the bottom of the “channel”.
Feb Lean Hogs: Today is a Sell Short Day. There’s Fib resistance at 65.72; objectives for a selloff are 64.87 then 64.67.
March Soybeans: Sell Short Day; 1034 is the first objective for a selloff.
March Bean Oil: There’s a good breakout setup (ID / NR7) today. Use trend line resistance at 40.00 for an upside breakout point and yesterday’s low of 39.62 down.
March Wheat: By the Taylor count I have today as a Sell Short day, but it found support at yesterday’s low. I would use 548-0 as the reference price for a Sell Short Day if it rallies.
March Corn: Breakout setup (ID / NR7). Watch the old swing high at 413-6 as a downside breakout point, trend line resistance at 418-4 up.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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