There wasn’t much news overnight. The ADP employment report came out about as expected. A strong employment component in yesterday’s PMI report raised hopes for a decent NFP report on Friday. A Chinese official said that gold prices were high and the market should be careful of a potential asset bubble forming. Must be careful of a bubble forming in certain assets. To me, this statement is bearish for the gold market. More broadly, we need to be vigilant for trend changes in December to the turn of the year. It’s often a time for trend changes. On another note, since WW2 the S&P has been higher 76.1% of the time in December.
Stock Indices: They’re all coming off breakout day rallies yesterday; that often yields a sell short day in the following session. S&Ps and the Dow are near their ’09 highs.
Dec. S&P: It’s a Taylor Sell Short day; yesterday’s high of 1111.75 to the Nov. high at 1112.25 is the reference area.
Dec. NASDAQ: Another Sell Short day; there’s trend line resistance at 1798.50.
Dec. Dow: Sell short day; yesterday’s high was 10494.
March T Bonds: It’s a Taylor Buy day. It held Fib support at 121-06; the first rally objective is 122-04.
Dec. Yen: Today or tomorrow is a Buy day. There’s Fib support at 11413.
Dec. Euro FX: Is today the Sell Short day? Watch resistance at 1.5106 to yesterday’s high of 1.5118.
Dec. British Pound: Cable is trying to take out trend line resistance at 1.666; it’s on a Sell Short signal. The SS trade may wait until tomorrow.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: it’s a Sell Short day for the Loonie; first support is 9528.
Feb. Gold: It’s new highs for the “barbarous relic” as Keynes called it. It’s diverging from the Dollar and commodities. The old high of 1196.80 is support; resistance is 1212.50.
March Silver: The old high at 18.975 is now support; be careful up here.
March Copper: It’s a sell short day; watch yesterday’s high at 323.00.
March Cocoa: Another sell short day; yesterday’s high was 3365.
March Sugar: It’s an ID / NR7 breakout setup; watch today’s high of 22.0 and yesterday’s low of 22.50 for breakout points.
March Cotton: Buy day; yesterday’s low was 73.45. Rally objectives are 74.20 then 74.70.
Jan Crude Oil: Sell Short day; resistance is 78.81 (trend line) and 79.04 (yesterday’s high). 77.25 is support.
Jan Natural Gas: Buy day; will it form a higher bottom here?
Feb. Live Cattle: A “cover breakout sales” day; those are often also TT Buy days. Yesterday’s low was 84.67; the Nov. low was 84.55.
Feb. Lean Hogs: It has an ID / NR7 breakout setup; Monday’s low of 66.35 is the breakout point down.
Jan. Soybeans: A narrow range day Monday and yesterday’s doji give today the potential for a breakout trade. Key support is the 1050 area.
Jan Soymeal: It looks ready to break down; watch support at 311.00.
March Wheat: Yesterday’s doji was a failed rally; will it follow through to the downside today? 580 is support.
March Corn: Yesterday’s NR4 and doji give today a breakout setup. Watch the overnight low at 410-4 for a downside breakout point.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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