Gold is up again after yesterday’s huge rally. This was sparked by India’s purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF. This takes away half of the 403 tonnes the IMF is to sell this year-bullish no matter how you look at it. Moody’s says that the next annual budget projection, usually in February, will be key to determining the US AAA rating. This from an analyst at Moody’s. A second dynamic will be whether the financial crisis has permanently changed the US growth dynamic. This will make for painful choices for Washington, and maybe a painful winter for the financial markets. It’s hard to imagine the US losing its AAA rating, but it’s also hard to imagine Washington discovering the fiscal discipline to get the budget in order. Overnight there was strong economic news from Asia, although the World Bank also warned of the possibility of an asset and property bubble in China. There were good PMI reports from Australia and Europe overnight; this is giving equities a bid. This morning we get the Fed’s quarterly refunding announcement at 8 AM, the ISM services report at 9 AM, DOE energy inventories at 9:30, and the FOMC meeting announcement at 1:15. Lots to watch.
Dec. S&P: Another breakout setup. I’m watching the 1055 area for the first upside breakout point.
Dec. NASDAQ: Breakout mode; 1694 is the next upside breakout point.
Dec. Dow: Breakout mode; 9815 and 9832 are rally objectives.
Dec. T Bonds: Today is a “cover breakout sales” day, so it could be a buy day, but it’s trading weak today. Downside targets are 118-10 and 117-25.
Dec. Yen: Selling off on a breakout day. There’s support around 11010 Fib retracement and trend line). Another breach of 110 could be a breakout sale.
Dec. Euro FX: It appears to have found support around 14680; watch trend line resistance at 14801.
Dec. British Pound: Rallying after 2 doji days. It cleared trend line resistance at 1.6515; last week’s high of 1.6602 is next.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: It’s a sell short day, but clearing a trend line at 9364 gave the bulls new life. 9439 is Fib retracement resistance.
Dec. Gold: Look to buy pullbacks, but know you’re in a volatile market. I’m watching support at 1084 and the breakout at 1072. $1100 is a psychological objective.
Dec. Silver: Yesterday’s close over Fib retracement resistance of 1714.8 keeps the bulls in the driver’s seat. 1773.5 is resistance and a rally objective.
Dec. Cocoa: It’s a sell short day; there’s Fib and trend line resistance around 3318. 3269 is support.
March Sugar: Sell short day; watch support at 23.58.
Dec. Coffee: An ID / NR4 breakout setup; breakout points are 142.64 (trend line) and 143.10 (Monday’s high).
Dec. Crude Oil: Sell short day; watch trend line resistance at 80.90. Support is now yesterday’s high of 79.77. Watch for a breakout move at 9:30.
Jan Soybeans: Clearing trend line resistance at 1021-4 could be huge-that trend line has stopped three big rallies since August.
Dec. Wheat: It has a breakout setup-NR4 and doji. Watch the overnight high at 527-6 for an upside breakout point; 531-2 is a big level.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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