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Daily State of the Markets |
Good morning. The recent wild ride on Wall Street continued yesterday as the Dow’s swing of 181 points intraday definitely kept everyone on their toes. And while the focus in the market had been all about the earnings reports and whether or not Corporate America could deliver some top-line growth, it now appears that the focus has shifted to the charts of the dollar and the banks.
Stocks enjoyed a nice pop out of the gate yesterday on the back of more good economic news out of China, where the PMI grew at the fastest rate in eight years. The bulls then wasted little time in celebrating some good news here at home as the reports from the ISM Manufacturing Index as well as Pending Home Sales and Construction Spending all came in well above expectations. And with the better economic news came some selling in the dollar. Thus, before you could reload the coffee pot, the DJIA was enjoying gains of nearly 150 points and it looked like the bulls had relocated their mojo.
But from there a one-two punch in the financial sector and some issues on the charts created the rollercoaster ride that was Monday’s session. First, there was Citi (C) breaking down below important support and second, there was testimony from Jon Greenlee, warning about banks’ potential losses from commercial real-estate loans. (In case the name isn’t familiar, Greenlee is the director of the Fed’s Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation.) It will suffice to say that the two caused a problem for both the banks and the market in general.
Among other things, Greenlee said that “Poor loan quality, subpar earnings, and uncertainty about future conditions raise questions about capital adequacy for some institutions.” He then added, “The condition of the banking system is far from robust. Two years into a substantial economic downturn, loan quality is poor across many asset classes and, as noted earlier, continues to deteriorate as weakness in housing markets affects the performance of residential mortgages and construction loans.”
The renewed worry about the banks triggered a midday reversal, which was highlighted by a swoon of 130 Dow points in less than an hour. The dance to the downside was, of course, accompanied by a corresponding rise in the dollar as these two asset classes remain inversely joined at the hip at the present time. And speaking of the dollar, the joke making the rounds is that like it or not, these days everyone is now a currency trader.
The bulls will tell you that the afternoon rebound was an encouraging sign. After all, the bears had their chance to really have a big inning, but couldn’t get it done. Yet on the other side of the aisle, our friends in fur point to the fact that the S&P and NASDAQ couldn’t move above their respective 50-day moving averages, which is a precursor of bad things to come.
Turning to this morning, we’ve got lots of inputs but nothing on the economic front. First, Australia’s central bank raised rates again. And while the move was not unexpected, it does heighten the expectations for the Fed to start talking about an exit strategy. Next, there are “issues” across the pond with Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland in terms of needing government assistance as well earnings problems from UBS (UBS).
But, we’ve got some good news as well as Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has decided to purchase Burlington Northern (BNI) for $100, which is a 31.5% premium from last night’s closing price.
Running through the rest of the pre-game indicators, the foreign markets are mostly lower with Europe having a bad day. Crude futures are moving down with the latest quote showing oil trading off by $0.83 to $77.30. On the interest rate front, we’ve got the yield on the 10-yr trading at 3.41%, while the yield on the 3-month T-Bill is currently at 0.05%. And in looking at currencies, it appears the dollar is stronger at the moment – and we all know what that means. Finally, with about 45 minutes before the bell, stock futures in the U.S. are pointing to a lower open. The Dow futures are currently off by about 60 points; the S&P’s are down by about 7 points, while the NASDAQ looks to be about 11 points below fair value at the moment.
| Yesterday’s Earnings After The Bell | |||
Company |
Symbol |
EPS |
Reuters Estimate |
| Anadarko Petroleum | APC | -$0.11 | -$0.34 |
| Avis Budget Group | CAR | $0.65 | $0.44 |
| Chesapeake Energy | CHK | $0.70 | $0.65 |
| Kinross Gold | KGC | $0.00 | $0.12 |
| Kindred Healthcare | KND | $0.14 | $0.03 |
| Principal Financial Group | PFG | $0.57 | $0.65 |
| Republic Services | RPG | $0.39 | $0.37 |
| Hanover Insurance | THG | $0.89 | $0.98 |
| Earnings Before The Bell | |||
Company |
Symbol |
EPS |
Reuters Estimate |
| AmerisourceBergen | ABC | $0.44 | $0.40 |
| Archer-Daniels | ADM | $0.77 | $0.57 |
| American Tower | AMT | $0.17 | $0.17 |
| Cameron Intl | CAM | $0.58 | $0.52 |
| Rockwell Collins | COL | $0.93 | $0.87 |
| Cognizant Technology | CTSH | $0.45 | $0.41 |
| Emerson | EMR | $0.67 | $0.60 |
| Frontier Communications | FTR | $0.17 | $0.16 |
| IntercontinentalExchange | ICE | $1.18 | $1.15 |
| MasterCard | MA | $3.48 | $2.93 |
| Medco Health | MHS | $0.75 | $0.72 |
| Royal Caribbean | RCL | $1.07 | $1.01 |
| Rowan Companies | RDC | $0.54 | $0.52 |
| Polo Ralph Lauren | RL | $1.75 | $1.31 |
| Tenet Healthcare | THC | -$0.01 | -$0.02 |
| Viacom | VIA.B | $0.69 | $0.57 |
* Report includes items that make comparisons to the consensus estimate questionable
Wall Street Research Summary
Upgrades:
AstraZeneca (AZN) – BofA/Merrill AvalonBay (AVB) – BofA/Merrill ValueClick (VCLK) – Citi Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) – Credit Suisse Overseas Shipholding (OSG) – FBR Capital Ford (F) – Target increased at Goldman Tenaris (TS) – Jefferies Linear Technology (LLTC) – Morgan Stanley Maxim Integrated (MXIM) – Morgan Stanley Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) – Initiated Buy at UBS Best Buy (BBY) – Initiated Buy at UBS Home Depot (HD) – Initiated Buy at UBS Lowe’s (LOW) – Initiated Buy at UBS Advance Auto Parts (AAP) – Initiated Buy at UBS AutoZone (AZO) – Initiated Buy at UBS
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) – BofA/Merrill Affiliated Managers (AMG) – Goldman Altera (ALTR) – Morgan Stanley Intel (INTC) – Morgan Stanley Micron (MU) – Morgan Stanley Xilinx (XLNX) – Morgan Stanley Nvidia (NVDA) – Morgan Stanley KLA-Tencor (KLAC) – Morgan Stanley Novellus (NVLS) – Morgan Stanley Applied Materials (AMAT) – Target reduced at Morgan Stanley
Long positions in stocks mentioned: GS, VRX, GEO, VCLK, GSK
Best wishes for a pleasant day and until next time, “may the bulls be with you!”
David D. Moenning
Founder TopStockPortfolios.com
For more “top stock” portfolios and research, visit TopStockPortfolios.com
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