I didn’t see any big bearish news this morning, but stocks are trading heavy. As I said yesterday, the next couple of days could be pivotal for intermediate term direction. In stock terms, there was a big multi month rally, and a correction started last week. Since August it has had three corrections. Will this break be a correction or a bigger trend change? For now, I like the long side of the Dollar and Treasuries and the short side of equities and commodities if Wednesday’s highs (or lows) are taken out. The Chicago PMI is out at 8:45 and consumer sentiment is out at 8:55.
Dec. S&P: It’s a sell short day; expect downward price action today. Support is 1055.50 then 1050.50. Getting over resistance around 1064 gives the bulls some life.
Dec. NASDAQ: It’s hard to believe, but yesterday was an ID /NR4 day. Is that telling us about the bull’s conviction? It’s a sell short day; 1700 is psychological support.
Dec. Dow: It looked a bit better than the other indices; it regained the 50% retracement level (at 9886) of the lat week’s decline yesterday. 9814 is a downside target and important support.
Dec. T Bonds: Rallying on a buy day; watch trend line resistance at 119-25.
Dec. Dollar Index: It’s on a buy day signal. 75.91 was retracement support; 76.36 is the first rally objective.
Dec. Yen: rallying on buy day signal. 110.10 was double top overnight; will serve as resistance this morning.
Dec. Euro FX: A momentum sell short day; 14871 is resistance. Watch 14796 as support.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: Yet another market with a sell short day; watch yesterday’s low at 9240 for support.
Dec. Gold: As I said in yesterday’s blog post (read here), 1049.50 is a line in the sand; it stopped there last night. It’s on a sell short signal; watch support at 1038.
Dec. Silver: Sell short day; watch support at 1643.
Dec. Copper: It’s following the other metals down (and it has a sell short signal). Watch support at 298.50.
March Sugar: It’s on a sell short signal; stopped at trend line resistance of 22.93 (which is also a Fib level). Watch 22.34 on the downside.
Dec. Coffee: Sell short day; 135.75 is Fib support.
Dec. Cotton: Aggressive traders could look to sell a break of yesterday’s low; wait for 6600 if you’re conservative. Either way, I want to be short.
Dec. Crude Oil: Yesterday’s rally stopped at resistance 80.40; first support is 78.75. Sell short day, and MACD appears poised for a bearish crossover.
Dec. Natural Gas: The range contraction and doji yesterday gives a breakout setup today. I’m watching 4.970 down; 5.165 up for breakout points.
Jan Soybeans: Sell short day; stopped at trend line resistance of 989-4. Watch support of 975.
Dec. Soymeal: Aggressive traders could look to sell a break of yesterday’s low at 289.50. Sell short day, down trend.
Dec. Wheat: 507 is resistance; sell short day. Watch for a break of Wednesday’s low of 491-2.
Dec. Corn: Looking to sell; 373-4 is support.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.
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