There’s mixed news so far. Durable goods orders were about as expected; they didn’t improve sentiment. There are concerns about European banks, and there’s talk about a new wave of home foreclosures in the US. To go along with that, we’ll get new home sales at 9 AM, crude inventories at 9:30 and the results of the 5 year T Note auction at Noon. The air seems to be leaking out of the balloon-lots of commodity charts are trending lower, as are stocks. The Dollar is working on turning higher. I’m not sure what caused the inflection point, but all the risk exposure trades may be coming undone.
Dec. S&P: There’s an NR4 breakout setup today. 1055.50 is a 50% retracement of the October rally. The next downside breakout point would be 1050. Resistance is now at yesterday’s close of 1060.50.
Dec. NASDAQ: The midpoint of its October rally is at 1714.50. No breakout setup today.
Dec. T Bonds: The two bar reversal of the past 2 days is bullish. 119-14 is Fib resistance; that’s also trend line resistance. Momentum says sell short; that may come tomorrow.
Dec. Yen: Looking better after regaining the old low at 10953, 11000 is the next resistance.
Dec. Euro FX: Change the prices and it could be the Spoos. 14770 is a 50% retracement of its October rally. Momentum is down to a buy signal level.
Dec. British Pound: It looks like a little bear flag forming, and it still looks like a breakout setup. Watch support at the past two day’s lows of 16281 and 16245. 16196 is Fib retracement support. and 16415 is resistance.
Dec. Canadian Dollar: It has an NR4 breakout setup and it has already cleared the first downside breakout point at 9330. For now, watch resistance at 9365.
Dec. Aussie Dollar: If you saw and shorted it off the NR4 and doji setup, the next downside target is 8983.
Dec. Gold: It has an NR4 breakout setup; I’m watching a downside breakout point at 1029.50.
March Sugar: The break under 2250 should aid the bears; 2195 then 2118 are the next downside objectives. In the short run, I expect a bounce late today or tomorrow.
Dec. Coffee: It has an ID/NR4 and doji breakout setup. 13535 was Fib retracement support; the next downside breakout point is 13420.
Dec. Cotton: Yesterday’s low at 6610 is support. Breaking that targets the 65 area. MACD is at a bearish crossover point.
Dec. Crude Oil: As always on an inventory report day, watch for a directional move around 9:30 when it’s released. 7991 is resistance; I’m watching 7820 for the first downside breakout point.
Dec. Natural GAS: It’s on a breakout; I’d consider pressing the downside if it takes out Fib support at 5.165.
Dec. Live Cattle: It’s an ID/NR$ breakout setup and it’s formed a little triangle. Use yesterday’s range for breakout points.
Dec. Lean Hogs: It’s on a momentum sell short signal after yesterday’s breakout rally. 5495 is support.
Jan Soybeans: It looks like it’s in trouble after breaking the bottom of the channel at 975. The next targets are 957-2 then 950.
Dec. Wheat: 491 is the next downside target; I expect a recovery rally late today or tomorrow.
Dec. Corn: It’s lower; indicators show there could be more downside. Next support is around 357.
This is a sample of the analysis from my Swing Trader’s Insight advisory service. For information on STI, and to sign up for a free two week trial, visit here.
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