Reports & Statistics
September consumer confidence levels fell to 53.1 from 54.4 in August, according to the latest Conference Board data. A Briefing.com survey suggested expectations for a reading of 57.1 GDP for the United States’ second quarter was revised to “a decline of 0.7 percent”.2 The Chicago PMI fell to 46.1 in September. A MarketWatch survey showed expectations for a rise to 52.3 Job cuts topped forecasts as the Labor Department reported that payrolls fell by 263,000 and unemployment reached 9.8 percent. Expectations were for 175,000 jobs cut.4 The ISM manufacturing index fell to 52.6 in September, lower than expectations.5
Crude oil inventories gained 2.8 million barrels versus expectations for a 600,000 barrel rise in the latest EIA data. Gasoline supplies fell 1.6 million barrels compared to expectations for a 1 million barrel gain. Distillates were forecast to rise by 1.2 million barrels, but rose by 300,000 barrels.6
Precious Metals
Gold Output in Russia “rose 18.5% year-on-year in the first eight months of 2009”. Total gold output for January through August was around 126 tons versus 106 tons in 2008.7 Polyus gold – a large Russian gold miner – is aiming to mine 15 percent more next year following a large project launch in Siberia.8
Grains & Oilseeds
The Argentine government is set to lift an export ban on grain products.9 The winter wheat harvest in Colorado topped earlier estimates and came in at around 98 million bushels.10 Farmers in Canada faced negative weather conditions in the early part of the season which may have lowered yields for wheat. Recent Statistics Canada reports show a potential for “19.5 million metric tons of wheat, not including durum, down from 23.1 million a year earlier”.11 This week’s Grain Stocks report from the USDA showed corn stocks up 3 percent, soybeans down 33 percent, and wheat up 19 percent.12 13
Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar
Cocoa tree replacement is underway in Ivory Coast. New seeds will replace over 37,000 acres of cocoa trees, aiming to improve quality and productivity amid aging plantations. 14 The planned election in Ivory Coast may be delayed. Harvest season has officially begun and is projected to be lower than the season which just ended, according to a Reuters poll.15 In coffee news, Vietnamese robusta farmers may have difficulty trying to dry beans following flooding and heavy rains from the recent typhoon.16 The typhoon may have delayed the start of the next coffee harvest in the Central Highlands.17 A lower sugar cane harvest in India may spur competition among sugar producers aiming to begin their crush early. A poor monsoon season may have reduced the crop by up to 17 percent in some areas, according to officials. 18
Livestock
Over 225,000 dairy cows have been culled this year according to audits from Cooperatives Working Together.19 A new proposal has been put forth to try to encourage the government to “purchase additional pork, turkey and dairy products over the next 180 days to prop up sagging farm prices.” The National Association of State Departments of Agriculture was the originator.20
Coming Up Next Week:
Monday: Crop Progress, ISM Non-Manufacturing
Tuesday:
Wednesday: Energy Stocks
Thursday: Gas Storage
Friday: WASDE, Crop Production, Trade Balance
Disclaimer: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Copyright 2009 LaSalle Futures Group
1 http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/29/news/economy/consumer_confidence/?postversion=2009092911
2 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-q2-gdp-down-07-vs-10-prev-est-2009-09-30-830210
3 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economy-weakens-in-chicago-area-in-september-2009-09-30
4 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aZCXOOaX_XWI
5 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/01/afx6955121.html
6 http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN3021206420090930
7 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=90100&sn=Detail
8 http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=90102&sn=Detail
9 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=a9jgCiS0XvEM
10 http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2009/09/30/business-financial-impact-us-colorado-wheat_6950985.html
11 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aT6WW3BzIg80
12 http://www.agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=153497
13 http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1079
14 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601116&sid=atmhrraCm0Pw
15 http://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE5900O920091001?sp=true
16 http://www.reuters.com/article/featuredCrisis/idUSSP349560
17 http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,352734,00.html
18 http://in.reuters.com/article/economicNews/idINIndia-42863420091002?sp=true
19 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13863
20 http://www.meatingplace.com/MembersOnly/webNews/details.aspx?item=13888
