Thursday closed the day up on slightly lighter volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures again rolled in different from equities, they outpaced yesterday’s volume. It is enough to wear a person out! Again the market spent half the day in range and then took off to not look back. The TRIN closed at 1.44, way too high to support the move we had today so I’ll address that in a few minutes. The VIX closed with a narrow range at 25.42. Gold closed the day down $3.70 to $935.70 and oil up 53 cents to $62.07 a barrel.
The TRIN is the mystery man today. Wednesday the TRIN was incredibly low at .36 for the showing no selling pressure. Today (Thursday) the TRIN closed at 1.44 on a rising market. That can point to only one thing, there was plenty of rising, but that points to selling of shares instead of buying coming in. That creates our volume and the heavier traded shares were being pushed up, but that doesn’t mean the volume was buying but it is selling pushing us up. Not just shorters coming in, but folks taking profits too. The TRIN measures supply and demand in the market, that lets us see buying and selling pressure and on a day where the indexes see a 1+% increase.
Nas Composite and Nasdaq 100 ran over the June highs, while the SPX and Dow sit just under that level. After five up days on the Nasdaq indexes and four on the SPX and Dow the market has moved a lot in a short period of time. Expiration week is not generally this one sided, the days have been range then we move higher kind of action. I don’t even remotely like one direction markets that move like this. But I don’t get a vote on how things move, we just have to trade it. Expiration week is usually my favorite week of the month though, because you get all kinds of days in both directions. This week hasn’t delivered that at all and has kept the bulls on the run erasing the months early losses. RSI is mid 60’s on each index, all are into the upper Bollinger band, the CCI is over the 100 line and still under 200, Stochastics are getting higher on the Nasdaq into the 90’s now with the SPX and Dow 88-86, hanging in there. This move into the upper Bollinger and with leadership from tech we have to dive into the tech side. The SOX is overbought and showing divergence on the daily chart, while Hardware is not as oversold, but very close and with the gap IBM will give it Friday morning will put it into oversold conditions.
After the bell IBM traded up 1.5% and Google down 3.3% which will create some tug of war in the morning. Looking beyond the news today the market will be watching the financials that reports in pre market Friday. Non- traditional financials like GS and JPM have done very well this week, but C and BAC will let us know how traditional banks are doing. GE will also be in the mix and create additional volatility. Options expire and the market will likely see a focus on earnings for the first hour. After that because this has been such an unusual one direction expiration week we’ll look for more of the same chop we’ve seen all week until we come out of lunch. With Google not in rally mode after the bell if any of the banks, particularly BAC have a rough report, the market may give us the weakest start of the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Monday 10:00 CD Leading Index, 1:30 Fed Lockhart Speaks, Tuesday Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks no time yet, Wednesday 10:00 HPI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Homes, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Univ Of Michigan Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, WBS and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market HAL, ZEUS, and after the bell BSX, LM, LNCR, PKG, TXN, ZION. Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BLK, CAT, KO, CAL, DD, FRX, FCX, LXK, LMT, MRK, PCAR, BTU, SGP, LUV, STT, UTX, UNH and after the bell AMD, AMLN, AAPL, BXP, GILD, LLTC, QLGC, STX, SBUX, STLD, SYK, YHOO. Wednesday pre market MO, BK, BA, LLY, GENZ, KEY, MS, PEP, PFE, USB, WFC, and after the bell AFFX, ADS, BIDU, CMG, CRUS, ETFC, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, ISRG, MLNX, MOS, NVEC, QCOM, SNDK, VMW. Thursday pre market MMM, T, BG, CELG, CIT, CME, FITB, F, JBLU, LLL, MCD, NEM, NUE, OXY, PENN, PFCB, POT, RS, R, TRA, UPS, WYE, XRX, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BRCM, BNI, CA, COF, CAKE, JNPR, KLAC, LSCC, MCHP, MSFT, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS, RFMD. Friday pre market BDK, IR, SLB, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Friday’s pivot 933.50, weekly pivot 879.25, monthly pivot 918. Intraday support: 930.25, 923.75, 919, 916.50, 912.50-912, 907.50-907 38.2%, 903, 901 fills gap. Resistance: 938.75, 941 fills 6/12 gap, 945.25, 953 6/5 highs, 976.50.
