* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a quieter trading affair in many markets early this week, amid a lack of major world economic news released so far. The focal point for U.S. traders this week is the FOMC meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve that are due out Wednesday afternoon. Markets have been very sensitive to Fed data in recent years.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the NFIB index of small business optimism, the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales report, and consumer credit.

Traders and investors are keeping a closer eye on the Middle East, as Israel has launched a military offensive on the Gaza strip. The Hamas group has retaliated with its own rocket launches into Israel.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 6.0 (The two major geopolitical events of recent weeks and months—the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the Iraqi civil war—have not seen any major developments recently. However, the Israeli offensive in Gaza is a concern to the market place at present.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading, on mild profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far last week’s record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s record high of 1,978.25 and then at 1,990.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,953.50 and then at 1,937.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today and trading near last week’s 14-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 3,918.00 and then at 3,925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 3,897.25 and then at 3,885.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hover not far below last week’s record high. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at the record high of 16,990 and then at 17,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Monday’s low of 16,910 and then at 16,875. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on a short-covering bounce recent solid losses. Bulls have regained their near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136 4/32 and then at 136 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 135 20/32 and then at 135 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0 September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early trading. Bulls have regained upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 124.24.0 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.10.5 and then at Monday’s low of 124.02.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading. Bulls have regained some upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 80.405 and then at 80.500. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 80.240 and then at 80.100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

August Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded to suggest a near-term market top is in place. In August Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday’s high of $104.09 and then at $104.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $103.19 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Recent strong downside price action has the bears in firm technical command. However, all the grains are well oversold on a short-term technical basis and due for corrective bounces very soon. This week’s trading action will be extra important. If grain futures prices can rebound well off their weekly lows by this Friday, it would be a clue that the markets have put in their lows. But right now the bears are having their way. Weather in the Corn Belt remains bearish, but still too wet in many areas. Extended weather forecasts presently still see no excessively dry or hot weather on the horizon. Corn and soybean crops have high ratings from USDA, to suggest record yields.