Technology stock sector ETF (XLK) Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above its highs of the previous 16 months on 7/7/14 and remains systematically bullish. Absolute price rose to a new 13-year high on 7/7/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting uptrend.
Industrial stock sector ETF (XLI) Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) broke down below its lows of the previous 6 months on 7/7/14 and fell further below its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/7/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,977.65, down 0.39%) absolute price opened lower worked further downward most of the day before partially recovering in the final 86 minutes. SPX closed below the open and below the midpoint of the day’s high-low range.
NYSE total volume rose 33% to a level 19% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Number of Daily Net New Highs on the NYSE (New Highs minus New Lows), now at 156, has been running below its peaks above 800 recorded in 2012 and 2013, when the S&P 500 was lower than it is now. So, this indicator still is diverging bearishly relative to last year’s levels.
Momentum is a leading indicator of price change, and failing price momentum is often followed by a downside correction. Short-term momentum oscillators RSI and MACD both turned down on 7/7/14, after failing to match their highs of 6/10/14–despite higher highs for the S&P 500 Index on which these oscillators are based. Furthermore, these same momentum oscillators consistently have remained below their highs of 2012 and 2013, despite much higher highs in the S&P 500 itself in 2014. Therefore, both oscillators have continued to demonstrate bearish divergence compared to the price of the underlying index, the S&P 500.
Stochastic (12,3,3) oscillator based on the S&P 500 turned up on 6/27/14 but, at its current level of 91, remains below its June peak above 98 set on 6/4/14, for another example of bearish divergence.
For the stock market, end/beginning of month and pre-holiday (4th of July) bullish seasonal tendencies have now expired, stock prices are overbought and overvalued, sentiment indicators are off the charts and into the danger zone, bearish momentum divergences have been accumulating, and there is a tendency for low trading volume on up days and rising trading volume on down days (generally, not always). These are challenges to a sustainable upside trend that the market has been ignoring for months.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/3/14 when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average rose to new all-time closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100 ETF/S&P 500 ETF Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose further above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14. QQQ/SPY remains systematically neutral because the 50-day SMA is still below the 200-day SMA. Nevertheless, the 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing since 6/5/14 such that a bullish crossover appears to be likely in days ahead. Absolute price of QQQ has been making 13-year highs and remains systematically bullish.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF has been stuck in a trading range from 32.62 to 39.67 for about a year and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 8 years on 3/13/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting long-term downtrend. The 50-day SMA remains in weak position below the 200-day SMA. Long term, EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of EEM has been stuck in a trading range from 36.16 to 45.34 for more than 2 years and has remained systematically neutral most of that time.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 2 months on 6/11/14, suggesting renewed weakness. EFA/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 11 years on 3/20/14, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/30/14. OEF/SPY crossed below its 50-day SMA on 6/24/14, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) has firmed up since 5/21/14 and is now systematically neutral. Absolute price rose new high on 7/1/14, thereby confirming its uptrend.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 6 weeks on 6/30/14–this after falling below its 50-day SMA on 6/25/14, and thereby reconfirming its long-term bearish trend. Price has remained systematically bearish most of the time since peaking at 22.98 on 7/9/13. Support 21.07 and 20.84. Resistance 21.60, 21.96, 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) absolute price broke down below its lows of the previous 4 months on 7/7/14, thereby reconfirming a significant downside price pullback. DBA crossed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/9/14, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) absolute price peaked on 6/20/14 and corrected moderately lower since. USO rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/12/14, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Support 37.21, 35.96, 35.63, 34.97, 34.00, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. The 50-200 SMA spread has been narrowing such that a bullish crossover appears likely in days ahead if price holds firm. Support: 114.46, 113.08, and 102.28. Resistance: 133.69, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/3/14 and is now systematically bullish. Absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 and is now systematically bullish.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price rose above its highs of the previous 3 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 21.30, 22.23, 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) rose above its highs of the previous 4 months on 6/26/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) absolute price rose above its highs of the previous 5 months on 7/2/14 but remains systematically neutral, with the 50-day SMA still below the 200-day SMA. JJC price broke down below the lows of the previous 4 years on 3/19/14, suggesting a major long-term downtrend. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.66% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.55% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.35% , IDU , Utilities DJ, IDU
2.06% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
0.37% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.93% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
0.27% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
0.66% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
1.59% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
1.00% , JNJ , JOHNSON&JOHNSON
0.34% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
0.56% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
0.52% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
0.87% , AEE , AMEREN
0.64% , DLTR , Dollar Tree Stores Inc
0.81% , TGT , TARGET
0.12% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.42% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
0.72% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
0.25% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.10% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.21% , SRCL , Stericycle, SRCL
1.15% , EXC , EXELON CORP
0.62% , CB , CHUBB
0.32% , VPU , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.50% , T , AT&T Corp., T
0.27% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
0.73% , ED , CON ED
0.91% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
0.04% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
0.20% , ETN , EATON
0.18% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.21% , AFL , AFLAC
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.72% , IYJ , Industrial LargeCap Blend DJ US, IYJ
-3.28% , XBI , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.65% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
-0.80% , DBC , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.94% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.93% , XRX , XEROX
-0.86% , IYE , Energy DJ, IYE
-1.86% , MRO , MARATHON OIL
-0.92% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.50% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
-0.91% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.35% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-1.19% , VXF , Extended Mkt VIPERs, VXF
-1.98% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.98% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-0.44% , IYY , LargeCap Blend Total Market DJ, IYY
-1.07% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-1.67% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.73% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.82% , MBI , MBIA
-1.93% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-0.38% , IWB , LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-2.47% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-1.60% , AA , ALCOA
-0.74% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.91% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-1.49% , HUM , HUMANA
-0.62% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.17% , DVN , DEVON ENERGY
-0.92% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
-2.48% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
-1.20% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.64% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.55% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.58% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.73% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.47% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.37% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.37% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.33% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.32% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.30% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.29% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.27% , India PS, PIN
0.24% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.20% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.19% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.18% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.16% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.16% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.13% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.10% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.10% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.03% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.02% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.03% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.05% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.07% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.07% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.07% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.08% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.10% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.11% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.11% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.14% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.20% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.21% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.21% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.22% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.23% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.28% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.29% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.30% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.32% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.32% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.33% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.35% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.36% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.36% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.38% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.38% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.39% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.39% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.41% , Dividend International, PID
-0.43% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.43% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.45% , Global 100, IOO
-0.46% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.47% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.47% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.48% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.48% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.49% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.49% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.52% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.56% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.57% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.59% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.59% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.61% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.62% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.62% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.62% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.63% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.63% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.65% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.66% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.66% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.67% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.71% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.72% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.73% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.74% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.74% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.75% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.75% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.76% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.77% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.78% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.80% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.80% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.81% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.82% , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.82% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.83% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.84% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.86% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.87% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.87% , Networking, IGN
-0.90% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.92% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.92% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.92% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.93% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.94% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.96% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-1.02% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.05% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.05% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.08% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-1.13% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-1.15% , South Korea Index, EWY
-1.16% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.18% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-1.27% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.29% , Germany Index, EWG
-1.31% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.36% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-1.39% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-1.40% , France Index, EWQ
-1.41% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-1.43% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-1.49% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-1.49% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-1.58% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.61% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-1.64% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.71% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.71% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-2.01% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.02% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-2.06% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-2.47% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-2.48% , Italy Index, EWI
-2.89% , Austria Index, EWO
-3.28% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1985.59, high of 7/3/2014
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1944.69, low of 6/26/2014
1925.78 , low of 6/12/2014
1919.60, 50-day SMA
1859.79, low of 5/7/2014
1850.61, low of 4/28/2014
1831.76, 200-day SMA
1813.55, high of 11/29/2013
1737.92, low of 2/5/2014
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1711.57, high of 10/15/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
1696.55, high of 10/1/2013
1695.93, low of 10/15/2013
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1670.36, low of 10/3/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1646.47, low of 10/9/2013
1629.05, low of 8/27/2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
