* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a “risk-off” day in the market place Monday, as Russia-Ukraine tensions are back on the front burner. Asian and European stock markets were under selling pressure Monday and the U.S. stock indexes are seeing follow-through selling from last week’s losses, in early electronic trading Monday morning. Gold and the U.S. dollar are seeing safe-haven buying interest Monday, but U.S. Treasuries are not. Crude oil prices have also rallied due to the geopolitical uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine matter.

During the weekend Ukrainian troops were mobilized to counter a surging pro-Russia movement by protesters who have tried to occupy some Ukraine cities. Ukraine government officials have accused Russia of instigating and even arming the protesters. Meantime, Russian troops are still massed on the Russia-Ukraine border. The NATO secretary-general last week those troops appear ready to move on short notice. This situation has flared up and once again has become a potential geopolitical flash point. There are also questions regarding how the U.S. will react to the latest developments in the region. It’s very likely this conflict will remain a major markets-moving factor for at least the rest of this week.

In other news, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi said Saturday the recent strength of the Euro currency could prompt fresh easing of ECB monetary policy, in order to keep deflationary pressures on the EU economy in check. This news dropped the Euro and supported the U.S. dollar index.

U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes retail sales, and manufacturing and trade inventories.

Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 7.5 (The Russia-Ukraine tensions are now on the front burner of the market place.)

(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 10, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 10 being the most risk-averse (risk-off), and 5 being neutral.

–Jim  Wyckoff

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 June e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading, after hitting a two-month low early on. Bears still have downside technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,825.00 and then at Friday’s high of 1,832.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,803.25 and then at 1,800.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower early today after hitting a nine-week low early on. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,450.00 and then at 3,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,429.75 and then at 3,420.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading today and are hovering near a two-month low. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance 16,000 and then at Friday’s high of 16,075. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of 15,940 and then at 15,900. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower early today on mild profit taking that saw prices hit a contract high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the contract high of 135 2/32 and then at 135 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 134 even and then at 133 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5 June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today on mild profit taking after hitting a six-week high overnight. Notes bulls have gained good upside technical momentum recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 125.02.5 and then at the March high of 125.06.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 124.15.0 and then at 124.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading on short covering after hitting a four-week low last week. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.840 and then at 80.000. Shorter-term support is seen at overnight low of 79.620 and then at 79.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

May Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high overnight. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and still have some upside momentum. In May Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $104.00 and then at the contract high of $104.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $103.39 and then at $103.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. Weather in the central U.S. has been cold and wet the past few days, including some snow on the ground as U.S. corn planters wait to roll. This is bullish for corn and has spilled over into buying interest in the other markets. The cold U.S. weather is also prompting some concern about freezing temperatures occurring in some wheat regions early this week. Also, the heightened Russia-Ukraine tensions are bullish for the grains, and especially wheat. Technically, wheat bears still have some downside momentum to suggest that market has topped out, at least for the near term. Corn and soybean bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.