* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
Asian and European markets were weaker in a subdued atmosphere Friday, as the partial U.S. government shutdown enters its fourth day with no end in sight. There is growing anxiety in the world market place but not yet panic. If the situation drags on over the weekend and into next week, which appears likely at this time, then trader and investor anxiety will increase come Monday morning. If confidence in the market place continues to wane, the odds will grow that daily price volatility will increase in many markets. In mid-October the U.S. government will hit its debt ceiling. If that arguably more important matter cannot be agreed upon by U.S. lawmakers in a timely manner, then it could be a much bigger event for the market place than the current budget impasse. Fresh U.S. budget news coming out of Washington Friday could be market-sensitive. There is no U.S. economic data due for release Friday with the U.S. government partially shut down. The Labor Department’s employment report was due out Friday morning. There are four Federal Reserve officials due to give speeches Friday afternoon. They will be closely monitored, to see if those Fed officials remark about the U.S. budget impasse’s potential impact on the U.S. economy.–Jim Wyckoff
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 1,684.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,692.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 1,663.60 and then at 1,650.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 3,225.00 and then at this week’s high of 3,251.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 3,199.50 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,189.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today on short covering. Bulls have faded. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 14,950 and then at 15,000. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at Thursday’s low of 14,875 and then at 14,850. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 133 15/32 and then at this week’s high of 133 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 132 22/32 and then at 132 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today. The bulls still have some upside technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are netural early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 126.20.5 and then at this week’s high of 126.27.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 126.12.0 and then at Thursday’s low of 126.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is firmer early today on short covering in a bear market after prices Thursday hit an eight-month low. Bears remain in firm overall near-term technical command. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.155 and then at Wednesday’s high of 80.380. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.780 and then at this week’s low of 79.720. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer early today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. In November Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $104.38 and then at $105.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $102.90 and then at $102.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Markets were mixed but mostly firmer overnight. Corn and wheat were slightly higher and soybeans were modestly weaker. Wheat bulls continue to gain upside near-term technical momentum. The “risk-off” mentality in the market place this week is a bearish underlying factor for all of the grains. U.S. harvest of soybeans and corn is progressing rapidly this week, which is bearish for both markets. With much of USDA closed, there is a lack of fresh fundamental news for grain traders to digest, and that favors the bearish camp due to the uncertainty of the matter.
