NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) remains systematically neutral, although its trend appears to be changing in a more bullish direction. QQQ/SPY rose above its highest levels of the past 6 months on 8/5/13.
U.S. stock market price indexes opened moderately lower, recovered modestly, but still closed mostly lower. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,707.14) eased lower by just 0.15%.
Popular price momentum oscillators based on SPX, such as RSI(14) and MACD(12,26,9), failed to rise above their May highs in recent weeks to confirm new highs by the price indexes. So, both oscillators remain bearishly divergent.
NYSE total volume fell 24% to its lowest level since 7/3/13, a level 30% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE fell. In July and so far in August, both failed to rise above their May highs; therefore, both remain bearishly divergent relative to the price indexes. In addition, the Net Number of New Highs-Lows remains far below its May high, thereby diverging bearishly as well.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EFA/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 11/27/2007. Absolute price peaked at 64.14 on 5/22/13 and fell to a 6-month low on 6/24/13, confirming a significant downtrend.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY has been rising since 6/21/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the TLT price are oversold and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices. Support 105.00, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 109.69, 110.80, 114.77, 118.94, 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price remains systematically bearish. Momentum indicators RSI and MACD based on the IEF price are oversold and show bullish divergence compared to price itself. Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising prices. Support 100.86, 100.45, 100.31, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 102.86, 107.62, 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been systematically bullish since 5/3/13, when the ratio crossed above its 50-day SMA. Absolute price of JNK has been in a rising trend since 6/24/13 but remains below its high of 41.95 set on 5/8/13.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and remains systematically bearish.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). UUP rose above its 200-day SMA on 8/1/13. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a systematically bullish trend above its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 36.22, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 7/30/13 when price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been trending down since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 130.14, 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 19.89, 20.53, 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 3 years on 7/30/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.38% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
1.84% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
2.91% , PMCS , PMC SIERRA
11.04% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
1.88% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.45% , PBJ , Food & Beverage, PBJ
1.87% , UIS , UNISYS
0.40% , VOX , Telecom Services VIPERs, VOX
0.76% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
1.66% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
1.56% , WPO , Washington Post
0.95% , AES , AES
0.28% , DGT , Global Titans, DGT
1.29% , SPLS , STAPLES
2.10% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
0.77% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
0.27% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
0.87% , TXT , TEXTRON
2.70% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
1.08% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
1.49% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
0.38% , AA , ALCOA
2.21% , FISV , FISERV
0.75% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.29% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.04% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
0.33% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.28% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
0.10% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
0.15% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
0.70% , XRX , XEROX
0.29% , D , DOMINION RSCS
0.01% , SHV , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.99% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-2.11% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-0.99% , SWY , SAFEWAY
-2.86% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-2.06% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-0.04% , IXP , Telecommunications Global, IXP
-1.77% , F , FORD MOTOR
-0.73% , PGR , PROGRESSIVE OHIO
-0.33% , EWC , Canada Index, EWC
-0.71% , HSIC , Henry Schein Inc
-1.91% , FAST , Fastenal Company
-1.40% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
-0.30% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.96% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-0.39% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-0.82% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-0.42% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.86% , HAR , Harman International
-1.11% , CB , CHUBB
-1.30% , SRE , SEMPRA ENERGY
-0.38% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-1.22% , PFG , PRINCIPAL FINL
-0.52% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.10% , VAW , Materials VIPERs, VAW
-0.58% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-0.18% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-1.26% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-0.53% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
-0.74% , DIS , WALT DISNEY
-0.29% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
-0.26% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.41% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.19% , VFH , Financials VIPERs, VFH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.88% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.14% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.46% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.46% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.45% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.43% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.43% , Networking, IGN
0.42% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.42% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.41% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.37% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.36% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.34% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.32% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.29% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.26% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.26% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.22% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.17% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.16% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.16% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.15% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.13% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.12% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.11% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.10% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.08% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.07% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.07% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.06% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.06% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.05% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.05% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.04% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.02% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.02% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.02% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.01% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.01% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.01% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.00% , Water Resources, PHO
0.00% , Dividend International, PID
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.04% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.06% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.06% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.07% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.07% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.08% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.09% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.10% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.10% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.11% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.11% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.11% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.11% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.11% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.12% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.12% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.13% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.13% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.14% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.14% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.15% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.15% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.15% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.15% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.15% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.16% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.16% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.16% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.16% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.17% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.17% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.18% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.18% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.19% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.19% , France Index, EWQ
-0.20% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.20% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.21% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.21% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.21% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.21% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.22% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.22% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.24% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.26% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.26% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.26% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.26% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.27% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.27% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.28% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.28% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.29% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.29% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.30% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.30% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.30% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.31% , Global 100, IOO
-0.31% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.31% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.32% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.33% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.34% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.37% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.38% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.38% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.38% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.38% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.42% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.50% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.51% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.52% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.52% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.53% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.56% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.58% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.60% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.61% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.62% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.63% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.66% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.72% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.75% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.77% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.78% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.84% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.86% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.86% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.97% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.41% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.50% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-1.52% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.54% , India PS, PIN
-1.65% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.89% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1649.06, 50-day SMA
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1538.55, 200-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
