US Stocks: rising volume and Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks confirmed downside price reversals.

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).

Industrial stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).

Materials (XLB) stock sector absolute price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 7/16/13, when it crossed above the 50-day SMA.

U.S. stock indexes opened firm but immediately began to sag lower. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,676.26) fell 0.37%, breaking an 8-day winning streak. SPX appears to have failed its test of resistance at 1,687.18, the SPX intraday high of 5/22/2013. Many stocks formed Bearish Engulfing Candlesticks, further indicating downside reversal.

NYSE total volume rose 15% to a level 11% below its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price move confirms the direction (up or down) of that price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind that move, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.

The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline on the NYSE both reversed to the downside after failing to rise to their May highs.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation, bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high–and that exact same thing happened again on 7/12/13. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) turned systematically neutral again (from bearish) on 7/10/13, when it crossed back up above its own 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 12-year high on 7/12/13 to confirm its 4-year uptrend.

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 years on 7/9/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) remains systematically bearish. OEF/SPY has been in a down trend since 9/24/12. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) remains systematically bullish. IWM/SPY has been rising since 5/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/27/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically bullish. MDY/SPY crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/1/13. Absolute price crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 7/16/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.38, 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the past 2 years on 7/5/13 and remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price remains in a bullish trend. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 37.80, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/28/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/27/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.39% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
3.32% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
2.62% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
4.04% , BIDU , Baidu, Inc., BIDU
0.51% , PMTC.O , PARAMETRIC
1.58% , KBH , KB HOME
1.36% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
0.13% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.41% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.72% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
0.97% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
0.68% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
0.66% , SYK , STRYKER
0.89% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
0.61% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
0.61% , ECL , ECOLAB
0.39% , PCG , PG&E
0.27% , XLNX , XILINX
0.64% , EBAY , EBAY
0.62% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
0.29% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
0.18% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.98% , KR , KROGER
0.21% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
0.43% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
0.13% , IPG , INTERPUBLIC GRP
0.71% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
0.05% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
0.07% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
0.04% , TXT , TEXTRON
0.10% , MOLX , MOLEX
0.63% , CLX , CLOROX
0.08% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.78% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-3.27% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
-3.04% , F , FORD MOTOR
-1.90% , KO , COCA COLA
-2.28% , FHN , First Horizon National
-3.87% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.75% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.95% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-2.94% , SNDK , SanDisk Corporation
-0.96% , DELL , DELL
-1.71% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.57% , COH , COACH
-1.91% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-3.00% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-1.09% , WAT , WATERS
-1.34% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.68% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.68% , YHOO , YAHOO
-1.25% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-1.99% , PTEN , Patterson-UTI Energy Inc
-1.96% , IR , INGER RAND
-2.02% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
-0.88% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-1.41% , ADM , ARCHER DANIELS
-0.96% , VRSN , VeriSign Inc
-1.57% , AET , AETNA
-0.54% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-2.09% , BMS , BEMIS
-0.79% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-1.23% , ASH , ASHLAND
-1.12% , XRX , XEROX
-1.69% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
-0.50% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.37% , Australia Index, EWA
1.19% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.02% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.99% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.90% , Russia MV, RSX
0.80% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.72% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.72% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.72% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.70% , India PS, PIN
0.58% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.57% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.51% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.50% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.43% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.43% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.41% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.41% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.40% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.39% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.39% , Germany Index, EWG
0.38% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.34% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.29% , Canada Index, EWC
0.26% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.21% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.20% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.18% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.18% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.18% , Spain Index, EWP
0.16% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.13% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.12% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.12% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.09% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.08% , France Index, EWQ
0.08% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.08% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.07% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.06% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.05% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.05% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.03% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.01% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.00% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.00% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% , Italy Index, EWI
0.00% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.00% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.01% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.01% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.06% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.06% , Austria Index, EWO
-0.07% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.07% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.11% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.13% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.15% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.15% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.16% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.16% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.19% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.20% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.22% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.22% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.23% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.24% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.25% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.25% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.25% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.26% , Global 100, IOO
-0.26% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.27% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.28% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.29% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.31% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.34% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.35% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.35% , Dividend International, PID
-0.36% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.37% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.37% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.38% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.38% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.39% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.40% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.40% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.41% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.41% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.41% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.42% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.42% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.44% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.45% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.45% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.45% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.46% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.47% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.48% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.50% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.50% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.50% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.50% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.51% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.53% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.53% , Networking, IGN
-0.54% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.54% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.54% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.54% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.55% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.55% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.56% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.57% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.58% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.58% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.59% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.59% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.59% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.61% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.61% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.66% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.70% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.70% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.74% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.75% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.75% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.79% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.81% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.82% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.84% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.85% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.88% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.91% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.94% , Water Resources, PHO
-1.20% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-1.67% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1660.03, Fib 78.6% of May-June 2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1638.72, Fib 61.8% of May-June 2013
1635.86, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1521.14, 200-day SMA
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009