Let’s open this week with an interesting supposition – my constant opining that the market ultimately only cares about corporate profit is not idle chatter. In this game, one must learn to look for opportunity within the framework of a news-driven market that is, a market often irrationally moving on hyped up news, good and bad. Earnings are one fundamental area to find opportunity.
- Wall Street doesn’t hate good news after all. The June jobs figures were stronger than expected and caused a big selloff in the bond market. That further underscored expectations that the Federal Reserve will be chopping back its big bond-buying program sooner rather than later. This kind of occurrence in the past would have caused the stock market to freak out. But the three major U.S. stock indexes climbed 1 percent on Friday, possibly pointing the way to more gains ahead.
“This kind of occurrence in the past would have caused the stock market to freak out.” Oh, really? And how far past is “the past?” It seems to me the past is just the last month or so. Well, never mind about that. The market will soon have its primary reason for existence on stage, front and center, again.
- Alcoa is scheduled to unofficially kick-off the latest earnings season after the bell, with analysts estimating that its Q2 EPS was flat at $0.06 and that revenue slipped 2.3% to $5.83B.
And, it appears the breathless media will be right there presenting the sagacity of those who make their living telling the rest of us what will happen. Actually, I should really back off those folks. After all, their predictions are what make markets within the market, so in the ecosystem of the market, they actually perform a vital function, much like an agent that creates attraction in the world of nature. Often, though, as is the way in nature, the attraction is lethal. Why just this morning, I received three alluring emails from the pump and dump machine about an enticing stock that would make me rich, if only I snapped it up before it is too late.
In any case, earnings will now take precedence over the QE tapering nonsense, so place your bets accordingly. In the meantime, here is some food for thought from a newbie trader who finds the game quite challenging.
- Desperately looking for guidance to help develop a reasonable approach/strategy for trading.
The above stated desire is so common from beginners in the harsh world of trading, but it is the next sentence that suggests the newbie is connected to reality.
- Recently took a much needed break after sustaining losses due to sloppiness and a lack of fundamental education.
For years, my advice to traders who are losing money is to take a break. Figure out what is wrong and fix it. Clear your mind and get mentally and emotionally straight again. Learn more about the game and then find some tools that can help.
- Two months into trading and going nowhere fast. Vantage Point Forecasts sent me some material as well several other companies that I’m considering, but don’t know which way to turn for assistance. Passionate about trading but on the verge of throwing in the towel.
I don’t know anything about this trader’s reality, so I cannot say whether he or she should throw in the towel, but I can say he or she should be careful about thinking just any software is a life raft on the sinking ship. Many are good tools and many are not, so be careful and take your time reviewing them.
I will say, however, that you should give VantagePoint a good look. I can only speak to my years of experience with the software – it works, if you are willing to do the work necessary to learn how to trade. The software itself is easy to use and it is accurate enough, but you need to know what you are doing in a world that will eat you up, if you simply walk through the dark forest thinking “There is lots of money out there to be made and I am going to make it.” So, get to the business of learning and then develop a “a reasonable approach/strategy for trading.”
Now, here are a couple of thoughts for anyone else who cares to understand the macro picture and the reality about the near, long-term future of the market.
- China and Switzerland on Saturday signed a free trade agreement in Beijing – a move that came amid escalating tensions between Asia’s economic giant and the European Union. The pact followed China’s signing in April of its first free trade accord with a European economy, non-EU member Iceland. Saturday’s deal, however, marked the first with an economy in continental Europe.
- Currently, gasoline consumption is down about 25 million gallons per day compared to last year.
Be careful out there, and don’t fight the tape.
Trade in the day; Invest in your life …
