U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral).
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/26/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral).
U.S. stocks gapped higher again on the open on Wednesday. Similar to the action on Tuesday, prices closed only a slightly higher than where they opened, forming indecisive Spinning Top Candlesticks. In other words, it was another near standoff of opposing forces, with the bulls managing to gain only a tiny bit of ground from the bears during the regular trading session between the open and close. Nearly all of the bounce occurred at night while the U.S. slept.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,603.26) finished higher by 0.96% while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.02%.
The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE recovered partially, for the 2nd consecutive session, but remains below its 50-day SMA.
NYSE Volume fell 3% from Tuesday’s level, after also falling on Tuesday. Old hands always say, “Volume goes with the trend.” The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE recovered partially, for the 2nd consecutive session, but remains below its 50-day SMA.
On Wednesday, 6/26/13, the S&P 500 had recovered nearly a Fibonacci Ratio 36.2% of its recent decline from 5/22/13 to 6/24/13, based on intraday extreme prices. That would be a normal retracement for a weak counter trend bounce on declining volume.
On Monday, 6/24/13, the S&P 500 fell its lowest closing price in 8 weeks, since 4/22/13. It fell 5.76% from 5/21/13 to 6/24/13, based on closing prices–the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 24 trading days. The magnitude and duration of the price decline is probably telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
The bullish majority had been taking encouragement from the SPX and other major stock price indexes holding support at or near their widely-followed 50-day SMAs. Now that support has been violated, SPX could fall further to test its 200-day SMA, now at 1508.68.
A wide variety of technical oscillators previously had given early warning after losing upside momentum and showing persistent bearish divergences over periods of weeks and months. Now, it seems quite apparent that there has been considerable technical damage to the previously bullish stock market trend. This damage probably signals a significant downside correction, or possibly worse. In any case, caution seems warranted.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Secondary Reaction on 6/20-6/21/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average and the Dow-Jones Industrial Average both closed below their price lows of the previous 7 weeks. Previously, on 5/28/13, the Dow Theory warned of a non-confirmation bearish divergence when the Industrial Average rose to a higher high without confirmation by the Transportation Average, which made a lower high. A Secondary Reaction is often significant in extent and duration, possibly retracing a substantial fraction of the previous move over a period lasting several months.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/21/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 20-month low on 6/24/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/20/13, reconfirming its preexisting major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 19-month low on 6/24/13, confirming its bearish major trend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 10 months on 6/26/13. The EFA/SPY 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA on 5/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/28/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral). Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) remains systematically neutral. MDY/SPY fell below its lows of the previous 6 months on 6/21/13–an obvious sign of weakness. MDY/SPY has been trending lower since peaking on 3/20/13. Absolute price has stalled out since peaking on 5/22/13 and fell below its 50-day SMA on 6/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish).
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 6/26/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.82, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price remains systematically bearish. Price has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. GLD has been down trending since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price trend remains systematically bearish. Price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. The trend has been bearish since price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/26/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish. SLV has underperformed GLD since SLV price peaked at 48.35 on 4/28/11.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/24/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. The JJC price trend has been bearish since price peaked at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
1.23% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
2.36% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.67% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
4.61% , UIS , UNISYS
3.86% , THD , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
4.96% , HAR , Harman International
0.97% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
4.37% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
1.67% , HSP , HOSPIRA
2.32% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
2.80% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
0.53% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.95% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
0.96% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
1.22% , PMR , Retail, PMR
0.63% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
3.92% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
2.70% , HON , HONEYWELL INTL
3.81% , SVU , SUPERVALU
2.57% , GNW , GENWORTH FINANCIAL
0.55% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
3.24% , HES , AMERADA HESS
2.49% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
3.09% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.85% , EWZ , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.76% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.45% , KMX , CarMax
2.25% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
0.99% , VTV , Value VIPERs, VTV
2.11% , BA , BOEING
2.09% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.67% , DTE , DTE ENERGY
1.42% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-10.27% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-5.40% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-6.03% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-4.20% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-4.19% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-5.91% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.95% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.78% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-2.85% , LUV , SOUTHWEST AIRLS
-1.95% , XME , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.00% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
-2.15% , AA , ALCOA
-0.45% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.78% , GPC , GENUINE PARTS
-0.89% , EPI , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.11% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-1.13% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.60% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
-0.92% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
-0.55% , MON , MONSANTO
-0.48% , GIS , GENERAL MILLS
-0.60% , FDO , FAMILY DLR STRS
-1.13% , AAPL , APPLE COMPUTER
-1.37% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.65% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.60% , EBAY , EBAY
-0.56% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-0.31% , SYK , STRYKER
-0.33% , A , AGILENT TECH
-0.17% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.14% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-0.28% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
-0.02% , AN , AUTONATION
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
6.05% , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.86% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
3.30% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.56% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.46% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.36% , Latin Am 40, ILF
2.27% , South Africa Index, EZA
2.19% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.15% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.12% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
1.99% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.85% , Brazil Index, EWZ
1.82% , Spain Index, EWP
1.77% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.58% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.58% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.51% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.48% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.44% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.37% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.30% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.27% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.27% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.25% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.25% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
1.17% , Australia Index, EWA
1.14% , Financial Preferred, PGF
1.11% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.08% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.05% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
1.04% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.02% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.02% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.01% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.99% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.99% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.99% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.99% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.98% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.98% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.97% , France Index, EWQ
0.97% , Global 100, IOO
0.97% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.97% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.97% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.96% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.95% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.94% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.94% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.94% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.93% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.92% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.91% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.91% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.90% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.90% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.89% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.88% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.83% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.83% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.83% , Italy Index, EWI
0.80% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.77% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.77% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.76% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.76% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.74% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.73% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.72% , Germany Index, EWG
0.71% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.71% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.69% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.67% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.66% , Energy Global, IXC
0.65% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.65% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.63% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.62% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.62% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.61% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.61% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.60% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.59% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.59% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.59% , Russia MV, RSX
0.56% , Dividend International, PID
0.56% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.55% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.55% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.54% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
0.53% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.51% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.51% , Water Resources, PHO
0.47% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.47% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.47% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.45% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.43% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.42% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.42% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.42% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.42% , Canada Index, EWC
0.41% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.40% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.40% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.40% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.39% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.38% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.37% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.31% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.31% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.30% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.30% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.27% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.24% , Austria Index, EWO
0.23% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.23% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.21% , Networking, IGN
0.18% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.16% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.12% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.09% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.06% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
0.00% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.12% , South Korea Index, EWY
-0.17% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.18% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.28% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.28% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.45% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.46% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.62% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.89% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.94% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-1.24% , India PS, PIN
-1.95% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-4.20% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-5.40% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, high of 5/28/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1619.20, 50-day SMA
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1508.68, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
