NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) fell back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/13/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again. Longer term, QQQ has underperformed SPY since 4/10/12, and so I previously warned “that Relative Strength downtrend will probably resume.”
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/13/13, confirming a downside correction. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 6/13/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 6/13/13 when it whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA.
U.S. stocks started the day higher on Thursday and continued to rise most of the day. Prices closed near their highest levels of the day. Price indexes recovered most of their losses over the previous 3 trading days.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,636.36) finished up 1.48% and Nasdaq rose 1.32%. The Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE rebounded sharply but remains below its 50-day SMA. NYSE Volume rose 4% from the previous trading day, suggesting somewhat better demand for stocks.
Again, the bulls appear to taking encouragement from the major stock price indexes holding support near their widely-followed 50-day SMAs, now at 1612.21 for SPX–same as they did a week ago. “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.”–Ecclesiastes 1:9
There has been considerable technical damage to the bullish trend, however, damage that appears to be limiting upside potential for the stock market. A wide variety of technical oscillators have lost substantial upside momentum.
The S&P 500 fell 3.6% from 5/21/13 to 6/5/13, based on closing prices. That was the largest down wave since last September-November. It also was the longest in time, lasting 10 trading days. The magnitude and duration of that price decline might be telling us that this time is different from all previous minor price corrections since last November.
Despite months of technical divergences and a clear loss of upside momentum in recent weeks, the great majority of investors remain bullishly complacent. The Bullish Majority assumes (hopes) that the stock market will again find its old bullish resilience, that bullish momentum will again “feed on itself”, and the “Buy-the-Dip” mentality won’t quit until the Fed quits its “highly accommodative monetary policy”.
Following a persistent trend, investors typically overestimate the market’s ability to continue in that same trend direction, while underestimating risks of trend reversal and the natural tendency of all markets to move both up and down, going from overbought to oversold, just as they always have.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 3 months on 6/13/13. Price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 6/3/13, when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 6/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral).
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price has been consolidating losses in a choppy, sideways trend for 4 years, whipsawing around both the 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA has remained below the 200-day SMA consistently every day since 4/18/13. Support 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.59, 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/11/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 22.65, 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 6/7/13, again reconfirming its major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) is systematically bearish. Price has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since 4/4/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
34.01% , GCI , GANNETT
7.40% , SWY , SAFEWAY
8.78% , MDP , MEREDITH
2.48% , PXJ , Oil & Gas, PXJ
6.34% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
6.02% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.94% , IGV , Software, IGV
1.21% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
7.74% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
1.51% , PXE , Energy Exploration & Prod, PXE
1.33% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
7.05% , KBH , KB HOME
2.82% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
2.85% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
1.62% , IYG , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.49% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
5.00% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.11% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
5.52% , X , US STEEL CORP
3.03% , VRTX , Vertex Pharmaceuticals, VRTX
1.98% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
5.01% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
7.66% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
1.87% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.86% , PPG , PPG INDUSTRIES
3.38% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.71% , IGE , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.72% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
4.00% , BCR , C R BARD
1.61% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
3.65% , SNI , Scripps Networks Interactive
4.05% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
1.89% , CTAS , CINTAS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-0.97% , WMB , WILLIAMS
-1.39% , TIF , TIFFANY
-1.74% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-0.96% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
-0.75% , WM , WASTE MANAGEMENT
-0.65% , DD , DU PONT
-1.49% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.36% , SLM.O , SLM CORP
-1.19% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-0.29% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-0.41% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
-0.57% , VFC , VF
-0.19% , LLL , L-3 COMMS HLDGS
-1.68% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
-0.16% , PEP , PEPSICO
-0.23% , EA.O , ELECTRONIC ARTS
-0.01% , CI , CIGNA
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
5.01% , South Africa Index, EZA
3.78% , Indonesia MV, IDX
3.63% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
3.61% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
3.14% , Australia Index, EWA
3.05% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
2.87% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
2.79% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
2.68% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
2.60% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
2.58% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
2.45% , Russia MV, RSX
2.37% , Japan Index, EWJ
2.31% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
2.30% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.24% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
2.20% , Networking, IGN
2.12% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
2.11% , Italy Index, EWI
2.09% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.09% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
2.07% , Brazil Index, EWZ
2.05% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
2.04% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
2.04% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
2.02% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.99% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.99% , Canada Index, EWC
1.98% , Energy Global, IXC
1.96% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
1.94% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.92% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.91% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.88% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.87% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.87% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.84% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.84% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.83% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
1.83% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.83% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.82% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.81% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.80% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.80% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.79% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.78% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.77% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.77% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.76% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.75% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.73% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.72% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.72% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.71% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.71% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.71% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.69% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.68% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.66% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.66% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
1.65% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.63% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
1.62% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.62% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
1.61% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.61% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.60% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.60% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.58% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.58% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.57% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.55% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.55% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.55% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.53% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
1.53% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.52% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.52% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
1.52% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
1.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.49% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.47% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
1.47% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.45% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.45% , France Index, EWQ
1.45% , Value VIPERs, VTV
1.45% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
1.44% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
1.41% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
1.40% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.39% , Water Resources, PHO
1.38% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
1.36% , Financial Preferred, PGF
1.34% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
1.33% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.31% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
1.30% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.30% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.27% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.27% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
1.27% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.26% , India PS, PIN
1.25% , Dividend International, PID
1.24% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
1.24% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.21% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.21% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.21% , Malaysia Index, EWM
1.20% , Global 100, IOO
1.17% , European VIPERs, VGK
1.17% , Belgium Index, EWK
1.15% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.15% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
1.14% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.13% , Spain Index, EWP
1.13% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.11% , Germany Index, EWG
1.09% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.07% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
1.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
1.04% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
1.01% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.96% , Austria Index, EWO
0.88% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.77% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.76% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.74% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.68% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.66% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.65% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.65% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.52% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.49% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.49% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.47% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.30% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.10% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.38% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.39% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.49% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1687.18, intraday high of 5/22/2013
1674.21, intraday high of 5/28/2013
1648.69, intraday high of 6/10/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1612.21, 50-day SMA
1598.23, low of 6/6/2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1499.66, 200-day SMA
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
