U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its major uptrend.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/17/13, when it whipsawed back down below the 50-day SMA.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 6 weeks on 5/17/13. EFA/SPY fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). The two SMAs are converging, and a bearish crossover may be possible in weeks ahead, if EFA continues to lag the SPY.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) crossed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
Industrial stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
Health Care stock sector ETF Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/17/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish).
U.S. stock prices rose steeply in the final 2 hours on Friday to close at new highs. The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,667.47) finished up 1.03%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.80%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 1.26%. Breadth was positive, with 2,818 Advances and 1,177 Declines, and with 2,867 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 861 million Declining Stock Volume.
NYSE total volume fell less than 1% to a level 5% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 72.51 on 5/17/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a much higher high. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the number of daily net new highs on the NYSE failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators recently confirmed higher price highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
There has been no debate at all about the stock market trend from 11/16/12 to 5/17/13. Recognizing whatever has been happening in the recent past does not require any analysis. Much more difficult is recognizing when a trend is overextended and due for a significant correction. That would have to be based on analysis of normal market behavior observed over many years past. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its major uptrend. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.96, 22.69, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.84, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/17/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/15/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down its 50-day SMA on 5/13/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
10.79% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
4.01% , NOC , NORTHROP GRUMMAN
0.97% , VBK , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
7.37% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
1.04% , IXN , Technology Global, IXN
3.84% , HP , Helmerich & Payne HP
0.50% , IYK , Consumer Non-Cyclical, IYK
4.47% , GLW , CORNING
1.99% , CS , Credit Suisse Group, CS
3.35% , PCAR , PACCAR
3.84% , DB , Deutsche Bank AG, DB
3.19% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
1.00% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
0.63% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.98% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
1.14% , VBR , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.90% , NE , NOBLE
2.00% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.90% , RTN , RAYTHEON
0.64% , EWT , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.81% , PEY , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
4.15% , FLR , FLUOR
2.53% , APC , ANADARKO PETRO
4.29% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
2.32% , LMT , LOCKHEED MARTIN
1.64% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
1.16% , FHN , First Horizon National
0.96% , IYW , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.20% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.01% , F , FORD MOTOR
2.48% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
1.23% , TE , TECO ENERGY
1.22% , COL , ROCKWELL COLLINS
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-6.71% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-0.72% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.48% , EWS , Singapore Index, EWS
-3.82% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-1.28% , RIG , TRANSOCEAN
-2.71% , DE , DEERE & CO
-4.15% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.33% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.11% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-2.25% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.90% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-0.72% , SJM , J. M. Smucker
-0.72% , DOG , Short 100% Dow 30, DOG
-2.51% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.99% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-2.30% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.82% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-2.55% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-0.65% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.94% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.46% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
-0.50% , ACE , ACE
-0.10% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.40% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
-0.99% , PFE , PFIZER
-0.54% , CMCSA , COMCAST HOLDINGS STK A
-0.62% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.43% , EFX , EQUIFAX
-2.63% , THC , TENET HEALTHCARE
-0.74% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-1.89% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.55% , CL , COLGATE
-0.23% , SYK , STRYKER
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.85% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.70% , Energy DJ, IYE
1.67% , Energy SPDR, XLE
1.66% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
1.63% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.59% , Japan Index, EWJ
1.53% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.52% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.43% , Russia MV, RSX
1.38% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.33% , Indonesia MV, IDX
1.32% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.32% , Financial SPDR, XLF
1.28% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
1.25% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
1.25% , Financial DJ US, IYF
1.22% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.22% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.21% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.20% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.20% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
1.20% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.19% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.18% , Energy Global, IXC
1.17% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
1.15% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.14% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.14% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.12% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.12% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.08% , France Index, EWQ
1.08% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.08% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
1.08% , Materials SPDR, XLB
1.08% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.08% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.06% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
1.04% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.03% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
1.02% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.02% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.01% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
1.00% , Spain Index, EWP
1.00% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.00% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.00% , Technology SPDR, XLK
1.00% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.00% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.99% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.98% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.98% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.98% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.98% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.97% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.97% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.97% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.96% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.96% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.96% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.95% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.95% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.94% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.92% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.92% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.90% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.90% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.90% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.89% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.89% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.88% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.86% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.84% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.83% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.83% , Austria Index, EWO
0.82% , Water Resources, PHO
0.81% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.81% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.81% , Germany Index, EWG
0.80% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.76% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.76% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.73% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.73% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.72% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.72% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.71% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.70% , Global 100, IOO
0.69% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.67% , Italy Index, EWI
0.64% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.63% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.63% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.57% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.56% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.54% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.54% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.50% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.48% , India PS, PIN
0.45% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.44% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
0.42% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.42% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.41% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.39% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.37% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.34% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.34% , Networking, IGN
0.23% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.23% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.20% , Dividend International, PID
0.20% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.17% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.15% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.14% , Latin Am 40, ILF
0.12% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.09% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.07% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.07% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.04% , Canada Index, EWC
0.02% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.00% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.12% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.22% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.23% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.24% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.43% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.44% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.47% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.48% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.50% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.52% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.54% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.65% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.72% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.87% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.90% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.94% , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.27% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.25% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.51% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1667.47, intraday high of 5/17/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1581.90, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1477.97, 200-day SMA
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
