Here with are with the U.S. equity markets once again tagging new highs and the list of complaints gets longer. Oh, a correction is coming. We know it, but then those ‘out of the market’ currently won’t feel any of the pain.
I’m hearing a 5% correction is coming, it’s healthy.
REALLY?
As I’ve said many times it is futile to tell the market what is could/should do. Our landscape is littered with gurus, experts, pundits and the like giving really bad advice. In fact, CNBC started trotting out ‘statistics’ yesterday because, well…what else are they going to talk about?
LISTEN TO THE MARKET
The market will tell you what to do. That being said, why even bother waiting for a correction? If I am long bullish names as I have been, I love up trend days to unload stuff. Monday and Tuesday were a perfect example, I took advantage of good demand and higher prices in order to book winners and losers off my board.
THE ECONOMY
I’m also hearing some doubts about the economy, which of course we are seeing some rather weak data currently. This may portray some economic headwinds down the road (namely early 2014), but today’s market was predicted some six to eight months ago by the data — which if you’ll recall was just starting to ramp up. However, the market currently is not seen any reason to be cautious –we’ll have to see.
LOOKING BACK
I heard some guy comparing this market to 1999 and a frightful end because of scary heights. Funny, I was around trading in 1999 and it was one of the BEST years ever for the markets and tech. Absurd price levels? You bet, and if you were short that year you literally got hung out to dry. If anything, the second half of 2000 was one to be worried about because it predicted a miserable 2001/02 as the bear market in tech was in plain view.
THE FED
Then there is the bond market, QE and the Fed. If I had a dollar for all the many predictions about the process and the outcome I would have millions.
Where/when do you get in the markets? The Fed policy has made equity markets a fertile playing ground for a few years, finally at all time highs people are coming around to it?
Call me a skeptic; this is where we see the ‘latecomers’ to the party –a time where I’m exiting, if only to keep the gains I have accumulated. I won’t worry about missing out.
Bottom line: Pay attention to what the markets are telling you, turn off the noise and you’ll be in a much better place!
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Learn more about Lang and his firm: Explosive Options here.