Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/16/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/16/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA.
U.S. stock prices opened moderately lower but rose to challenge the previous day’s record highs by 11:16 a.m. ET. High prices were rejected by the market, however, and disappointed selling drove prices below the open and below the previous day’s close in the final 2 hours.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,650.47) finished down 0.50%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.18%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.28%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 0.80%.
NYSE total volume fell 5% to a level 6% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Breadth was negative, with 1,577 Advances and 2,442 Declines, and with 1,202 million shares Advancing Stock Volume compared to 2,518 million Declining Stock Volume.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 73.34 on 5/15/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a much higher high. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs and the number of daily net new highs on the NYSE failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators recently confirmed higher price highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
There has been no debate at all about the stock market trend from 11/16/12 to 5/15/13. Recognizing whatever has been happening in the recent past does not require any analysis. Much more difficult is recognizing when a trend is overextended and due for a significant correction. That would have to be based on analysis of normal market behavior observed over many years past. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 5/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) fell below both its 50-day SMA and 200-day SMA on 5/14/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). EFA absolute price peaked on 5/8/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 18 months on 5/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. OEF/SPY turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it fell back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/15/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bullish) on 5/16/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new closing price high on 5/15/13.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices, however. Support 116.42, 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/16/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Support 106.67, 106.56, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price rose above its highs of the previous 9 months on 5/15/13. UUP price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.84, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.84, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 130.51. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/16/13, again reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/15/13,, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back down its 50-day SMA on 5/13/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.61% , IGN , Networking, IGN
12.62% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
6.17% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
4.73% , KSS , KOHLS
6.44% , CIEN.O , CIENA
4.52% , EMC , EMC
3.29% , TAP , ADOLPH COORS STK B, TAP
3.75% , HSP , HOSPIRA
4.24% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
2.20% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
1.84% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
1.24% , SEE , SEALED AIR
1.42% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
1.19% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
1.75% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.89% , ADSK , AUTODESK
0.49% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
0.97% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
1.13% , ORCL , ORACLE
0.53% , VGT , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.35% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.27% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
2.55% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
0.26% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
1.89% , TLAB , TELLABS
0.75% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
0.38% , BIIB , BIOGEN IDEC
0.90% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
0.30% , ALTR , ALTERA
0.54% , XLK , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.24% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.46% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
0.34% , MOLX , MOLEX
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-12.56% , AMD , ADV MICRO DEV
-2.63% , UNM , UNUMPROVIDENT
-2.11% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-1.46% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-3.65% , GCI , GANNETT
-2.01% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-2.14% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.59% , IYF , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.66% , ADRE , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.62% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.84% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-4.70% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-1.30% , ECH , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.66% , XHB , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.74% , LEN , Lennar Corp. (LEN)
-1.30% , EWA , Australia Index, EWA
-2.63% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
-0.69% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-2.10% , DRI , DARDEN REST
-2.11% , NKE , NIKE STK B
-1.55% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
-1.70% , WMT , WAL MART STORES
-0.33% , IEV , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-2.59% , IP , INTL PAPER
-1.25% , CCE , COCA COLA ENTER
-0.70% , ININ , Interactive Intelligence ININ
-1.67% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-2.01% , ROST , Ross Stores Inc
-1.02% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
-1.53% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-1.25% , ITT , ITT INDS
-1.01% , EPP , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.06% , HOT , STARWOOD HOTELS
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.61% , Networking, IGN
1.04% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
0.90% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.90% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.87% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.77% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.65% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
0.54% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.53% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.48% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.46% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
0.38% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.38% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.35% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.29% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
0.27% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
0.25% , Taiwan Index, EWT
0.24% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
0.19% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.18% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
0.16% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.15% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.05% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.02% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.02% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.00% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.07% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.10% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.11% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.12% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.15% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.16% , India PS, PIN
-0.22% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.25% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.27% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.30% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.32% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.32% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.33% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.33% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.34% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.34% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.35% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.35% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.36% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.36% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.37% , Italy Index, EWI
-0.39% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.40% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.40% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.40% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.41% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.41% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.41% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.41% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.42% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.42% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.42% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.42% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.42% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.43% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.43% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-0.44% , European VIPERs, VGK
-0.44% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.45% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.45% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.45% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.46% , Dividend International, PID
-0.46% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.46% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.47% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.47% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.47% , Belgium Index, EWK
-0.47% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.47% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.48% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.49% , Global 100, IOO
-0.49% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.49% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.49% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.50% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.51% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.52% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.52% , France Index, EWQ
-0.53% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.54% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.55% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.55% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.56% , China 25 iS, FXI
-0.56% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.57% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.58% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.58% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.58% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.59% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.59% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.59% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.59% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.60% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.61% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.61% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.62% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.62% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.62% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.62% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.63% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.63% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.64% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.65% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.65% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.66% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.66% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.66% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.66% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.68% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.69% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.71% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.71% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.71% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.74% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.75% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.82% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.97% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.98% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.99% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.01% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-1.01% , Mexico Index, EWW
-1.03% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
-1.04% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.04% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-1.09% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.14% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.16% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-1.24% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.30% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.30% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.45% , Japan Index, EWJ
-1.66% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-1.99% , Russia MV, RSX
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1661.49, intraday high of 5/15/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1622.70, intraday low of 5/8/2013
1579.44, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1476.56, 200-day SMA
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
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About the Author
Robert W. Colby, CMT, is Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist at Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc., a New York Registered Investment Advisory firm. His primary objective is to outperform the S&P 500 Index over the long term while taking much less risk by using actively adaptive strategies to effectively manage Rewards and Risks. His unique Bear Market Protection Systems protect clients when stock prices fall persistently in bearish market trends. Robert is the author of The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators, Second Edition, McGraw-Hill, 2003, which has become the standard reference for indicator and trading systems design. In his 44 years on Wall Street, Robert has worked as a portfolio manager, a research consultant to institutional and private investors and traders, proprietary trader, technical analyst, and fundamental analyst. For a free trial to his extensive weekly analytical report, see: http://www.colbyassetmanagement.com/
