Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices, however.
Health Care (XLV) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again (from neutral).
U.S. stocks spend most of the day on Friday trading choppy in a relatively narrow range. A late rally minutes before the close propelled price indexes to new highs by the 4:00 p.m. close. Stocks closed above their opening prices and above their closing prices of the previous day.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,633.70) finished up 0.43%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.24%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average rose 0.58%.
NYSE total volume fell 9% to a level 6% below its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.
Breadth was positive, with 2,371 Advances and 1,612 Declines, and Advancing/Declining Volume was 2.1 billion compared to 1.2 billion Declining Stock Volume.
Some, but not all, daily stock market price momentum oscillators continue to diverge bearishly, as they have for many weeks and months already, even as most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Some have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 67.36 on 5/10/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. In addition, MACD(12,26,9) and the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs failed to rise to higher highs. Other momentum oscillators have confirmed higher highs, however, so the evidence appears mixed at this time. Momentum oscillator divergences are important because they are leading indicators of price.
My interpretation of the technical indicators has been that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident since November may have been overdone, and the stock market seemed overdue for a significant downside correction. Based on normal market behavior observed over many years past, that interpretation still seems reasonable. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, the bullish majority of investors have been questioning whether past normal standards of market behavior apply. Massive money printing out of thin air can’t continue forever, however, and the markets may be vulnerable once investors begin to anticipate the end of inflationary monetary policy.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/23/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. EFA price confirmed the uptrend by rising above the highs of the previous 21 months on 5/8/13.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 5/1/13. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/10/13.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/7/13 when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/10/13.
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Fixed-Income Investments
Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Long term, the 33-year trend is still indicating rising bond prices, however. Support 117.49, 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 121.32, 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.
Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish). Support 106.56, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 108.24, 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral) again.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 33.28, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 137.26, 135.85, and 130.51. 142.55. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 21.96, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/24/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 5/10/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Longer term, JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
7.25% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
5.62% , GPS , GAP
4.45% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.98% , DELL , DELL
4.23% , FAST , Fastenal Company
0.51% , IWZ , Growth LargeCap Russell 3000, IWZ
1.20% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.75% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
3.98% , GCI , GANNETT
4.53% , NVDA , NVIDIA
5.59% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
1.35% , AZO , AUTOZONE
1.33% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
3.31% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
2.06% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
1.58% , SEE , SEALED AIR
3.42% , IGT , INTL GAME TECH
1.97% , GWW , WW GRAINGER
2.05% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.21% , NYC , LargeCap Blend NYSE Composite iS, NYC
1.42% , ZMH , ZIMMER HLDGS
1.08% , PEJ , Leisure & Entertainment, PEJ
2.51% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
2.95% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
0.57% , PWB , Lg Cap Growth PSD, PWB
3.27% , HOLX , Hologic, Inc., HOLX
2.29% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
1.08% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
1.79% , SYK , STRYKER
2.74% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
0.35% , IWV , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.60% , NKE , NIKE STK B
2.36% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.81% , EWY , South Korea Index, EWY
-2.83% , TLAB , TELLABS
-2.34% , HES , AMERADA HESS
-0.52% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.52% , HYG , Bond High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-1.20% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.74% , EMB , Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.51% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-1.07% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.12% , GVI , Bond Interm U.S. Gov, GVI
-0.41% , SCZ , Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.41% , VDE , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.47% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
-1.64% , AFL , AFLAC
-0.66% , AET , AETNA
-0.15% , EFV , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.27% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.38% , JNK , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.42% , PM , Philip Morris, PM
-0.41% , MCK , MCKESSON CORP
-0.20% , NTRS , NORTHERN TRUST
-5.00% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
-0.32% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-0.38% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.56% , COP , CONOCOPHILLIPS
-0.09% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.33% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
-0.03% , ABT , ABBOTT LABS
-0.02% , PFF , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.58% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.94% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.90% , Austria Index, EWO
1.59% , Italy Index, EWI
1.54% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.53% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.40% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.20% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.19% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.09% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.99% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.96% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.93% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.91% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
0.88% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.84% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.83% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.81% , Networking, IGN
0.78% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.77% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
0.76% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
0.75% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.69% , Netherlands Index, EWN
0.68% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.67% , MidCap Russell, IWR
0.67% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.65% , Microcap Russell, IWC
0.63% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.63% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.61% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
0.60% , France Index, EWQ
0.60% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
0.57% , Water Resources, PHO
0.57% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.56% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.56% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.54% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.53% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
0.52% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.52% , China 25 iS, FXI
0.51% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.48% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.48% , Sweden Index, EWD
0.47% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.46% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.46% , Dividend International, PID
0.45% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.45% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
0.44% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.43% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.42% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.41% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.40% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.40% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.39% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.39% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.38% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.38% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.37% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.37% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.37% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.35% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.35% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.34% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.33% , Global 100, IOO
0.33% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.32% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.32% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.31% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.31% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.31% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.30% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.29% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.29% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.25% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.23% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.21% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.20% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.19% , Germany Index, EWG
0.19% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.13% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.11% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.07% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.05% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.04% , Russia MV, RSX
0.03% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
0.00% , Malaysia Index, EWM
0.00% , Japan Index, EWJ
0.00% , India PS, PIN
0.00% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.04% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.04% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.05% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.09% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.10% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.10% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.11% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.11% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.14% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.15% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.15% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.20% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.20% , Singapore Index, EWS
-0.25% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.27% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.28% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.33% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-0.35% , Spain Index, EWP
-0.37% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-0.38% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.38% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.38% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.40% , Australia Index, EWA
-0.41% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.41% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.45% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.45% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.47% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.51% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.52% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.52% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.52% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.53% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.54% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.56% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.57% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.59% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.60% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.74% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.76% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.77% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.77% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.86% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.90% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-1.04% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.07% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-1.20% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-2.81% , South Korea Index, EWY
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1635.01, intraday high of 5/9/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1570.07, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1470.71, 200-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
