U.S. Dollar Now Systematically Bullish Industrial & Materials Sectors Pick Up Relative Strength

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA.

Industrial (XLI) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA.

Materials (XLB) stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/9/13 when it crossed above the 50-day SMA.

U.S. stocks rallied to new highs by 1:48 p.m. on Thursday but were not able to hold their gains. Prices closed below their opening prices and below their closing prices.

The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,626.67) finished down 0.37%, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.12%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.15%, and the Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 1.13%.

NYSE total volume fell 3% to a level 4% above its 200-day SMA. Rising volume on a price rise confirms that price rise, while falling volume on a price rise may indicate diminishing buying power behind that advance.

Breadth was negative, with 1,407 Advances and 1,247 Declines. In addition, Advancing/Declining Volume was negative, with 1.3 billion Advancing Stock Volume versus 2.3 billion Declining Stock Volume.

My interpretation of the technical indicators has been that the medium-term stock market uptrend evident since November may have been overdone, and the stock market seemed overdue for a significant downside correction. Based on normal market behavior observed over many years past, that interpretation still seems reasonable. With the Fed providing massive artificial stimulus by buying securities at an unprecedented pace of $85 billion of a month, however, there may be reason to question whether past normal standards apply.
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Stock Market Indicators

The Dow Theory confirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 5/6/13, when the Dow-Jones Transportation Average followed the lead of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average by finally closing at a new price high.

NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).

iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/17/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. BKF/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/27/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. BKF/SPY fell below its 50-day SMA on 2/4/13 and fell below its 200-day SMA on 2/19/13. Price peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 4/15/13, reconfirming its major downtrend. EEM/SPY turned systematically bearish on 3/20/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13 and fell to a 5-month low on 4/17/13.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 4/23/13, thereby turning systematically bullish again. EFA price confirmed the uptrend by rising above the highs of the previous 21 months on 5/8/13.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) turned systematically bearish again (from neutral) on 4/24/13, when it whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA. Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) fell below the lows of the previous 5 months on 5/1/13. IWM/SPY turned systematically neutral on 4/1/13 when it fell below the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/8/13.

The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/7/13 when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new high on 5/8/13.

Daily price momentum oscillators have been diverging bearishly for many weeks and months while most of the stock price indexes rose to higher highs. Daily price momentum oscillators have remained below their highs of January, 2013, as well as below their 2011-2012 highs. For example, RSI(14) based on the S&P 500 Index peaked at 74.46 on 1/29/13 but was only able to rise to 65.54 on 5/9/13 when the S&P 500 closed at a higher high. And MACD(12,26,9) peaked at 17.88 on 1/29/13 but was lower at 17.64 on 5/9/13. In addition, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 trading above their 50-day SMAs failed to rise to higher highs for the year, 2013. Momentum is a leading indicator of price.
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Fixed-Income Investments

Bond, iShares Barclays 20+ Year U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/22/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 119.88, 117.49, 114.62, 109.69, 106.08, 103.20, 102.27, 96.31, 94.83, 93.14, 89.65, and 88.14. Resistance: 124.26, 126.08, 127.19, 127.72, 130.69, and 132.22.

Bond, iShares Barclays 7-10 Year U.S. Treasury ETF (IEF) price rose above its 50-day SMA on 3/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). Support 108.39, 107.71, 107.22, 106.56, 105.56, 105.22, 104.77, 103.90, 102.51, 101.77, 101.36, 101.11, 99.79, and 97.66. Resistance: 109.17, 109.20, 109.32, and 109.89.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bond ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) whipsawed back above its 50-day SMA on 5/3/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). JNK/LQD has been neutral for most of the past 3 years.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year ETFs Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 5/6/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of TIP peaked at 123.44 on 12/6/12 and turned systematically bearish on 5/3/13.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities

U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 5/9/13, when it rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 22.12, 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.69, 22.78, 22.96, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.

Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) again on 5/9/13 when price whipsawed back above the 50-day SMA.

Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price turned systematically neutral (from bearish) on 5/2/13 when price rose above the 50-day SMA. Longer term, however, USO had been mostly bearish since peaking at 119.17 on 7/11/08. Support 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 34.86, 35.53, 37.17, 38.31, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.

Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 2/22/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GLD has been mostly bearish since peaking at 185.85 on 9/6/11. Support: 139.78 135.85, and 130.51. 142.55. Resistance: 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) turned systematically bearish again on 12/27/12, when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 6 years, since 9/5/06.

Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/15/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major bearish trend. Price turned systematically bearish on 3/1/13, when the 50-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. Longer term, SLV has been mostly bearish since peaking at 48.35 on 4/28/11. Support 21.96, 20.73, and 19.44. Resistance: 23.70, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.

Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 4/24/13, confirming a major downtrend. SLV/GLD remains systematically bearish.

Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price fell below its lows of the previous 2 years on 5/1/13, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bearish major trend. JJC has been mostly bearish since peaking at 61.69 on 2/14/11. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy, so price weakness in Copper implies a weak economic outlook.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
5.73% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
4.77% , APA , APACHE
1.24% , DD , DU PONT
3.29% , BBRY , BlackBerry (BBRY)
3.74% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
1.42% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
2.27% , XRX , XEROX
1.53% , WY , WEYERHAEUSER
1.52% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
4.49% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
4.65% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.59% , MMM , 3M
1.19% , DOW , DOW CHEMICAL
0.90% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
0.75% , LM , LEGG MASON
0.09% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
0.63% , IR , INGER RAND
2.83% , HSP , HOSPIRA
2.73% , FNP , Fifth & Pacific Cos., FNP
0.17% , VHT , Health Care VIPERs, VHT
1.03% , BLL , BALL
1.29% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
0.75% , SCHW.K , CHARLES SCHWAB, SCHW.O
0.66% , OMC , OMNICOM
0.60% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
0.23% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
0.78% , DLX , DELUXE
0.74% , SOXX , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.94% , EMR , EMERSON ELECTRIC
0.53% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.18% , XLY , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.40% , UTX , UNITED TECH
0.61% , ITW , ILLINOIS TOOL
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Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-7.56% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-5.20% , MNST , Monster Beverage, MNST
-0.77% , ACWX , Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-3.96% , XRAY , DENTSPLY International Inc
-2.88% , RYAAY , Ryanair Holdings plc
-1.09% , ILF , Latin Am 40, ILF
-3.32% , NI , NISOURCE
-2.98% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
-1.79% , PIN , India PS, PIN
-2.04% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-2.77% , LBTYA , Liberty Global Inc. (LBTYA)
-1.97% , FE , FIRSTENERGY
-1.33% , ED , CON ED
-4.89% , AES , AES
-1.51% , XLU , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.55% , PFM , Dividend Achievers PS, PFM
-1.73% , EWM , Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.76% , IGV , Software, IGV
-0.96% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-2.46% , INTU , INTUIT
-2.57% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
-1.28% , EWL , Switzerland Index, EWL
-2.17% , PNW , PINNACLE WEST
-0.22% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
-1.74% , D , DOMINION RSCS
-1.90% , AFL , AFLAC
-1.18% , DUK , DUKE ENERGY
-2.67% , WAG , WALGREEN
-2.66% , EIX , EDISON INTL
-2.29% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.25% , MCD , MCDONALDS
-2.35% , EMC , EMC
-0.94% , RL , Polo Ralph Lauren
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.45% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.14% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.74% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.46% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.42% , Networking, IGN
0.39% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.34% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
0.30% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
0.22% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.18% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.13% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.10% , South Korea Index, EWY
0.05% , Financial Preferred, PGF
0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
0.00% , Singapore Index, EWS
0.00% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.01% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.02% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.04% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.04% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.05% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.07% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.09% , Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.09% , Energy DJ, IYE
-0.09% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.12% , Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.12% , Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.13% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
-0.14% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.14% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.14% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
-0.17% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.19% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
-0.19% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.20% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
-0.21% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.22% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.24% , Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.26% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.26% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
-0.27% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
-0.27% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
-0.28% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
-0.28% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.28% , Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.29% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.29% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.29% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.30% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
-0.30% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
-0.31% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.31% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.31% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.33% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
-0.33% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.33% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.34% , MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.34% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
-0.35% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
-0.35% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.35% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.36% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.37% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
-0.37% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
-0.37% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.38% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
-0.39% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-0.40% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
-0.42% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
-0.45% , Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.45% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.46% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
-0.46% , Energy Global, IXC
-0.47% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.47% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.47% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.49% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.51% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
-0.51% , Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.53% , Water Resources, PHO
-0.53% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
-0.54% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.54% , Russia MV, RSX
-0.58% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
-0.63% , Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.63% , Dividend International, PID
-0.64% , Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.64% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.65% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.66% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
-0.66% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
-0.67% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.67% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.67% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.70% , Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.70% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
-0.70% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.72% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.72% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
-0.75% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.76% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.77% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
-0.78% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.79% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
-0.79% , Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.82% , Global 100, IOO
-0.83% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.85% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.88% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.90% , Mexico Index, EWW
-0.91% , Canada Index, EWC
-0.94% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.95% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.96% , South Africa Index, EZA
-0.96% , Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.96% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
-0.99% , Germany Index, EWG
-0.99% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.99% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-1.03% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.04% , China 25 iS, FXI
-1.07% , Sweden Index, EWD
-1.07% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
-1.08% , European VIPERs, VGK
-1.09% , Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.11% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-1.11% , Belgium Index, EWK
-1.14% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.15% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.16% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.16% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.26% , Australia Index, EWA
-1.27% , Austria Index, EWO
-1.28% , Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.35% , France Index, EWQ
-1.45% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.51% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
-1.51% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
-1.58% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-1.65% , Spain Index, EWP
-1.73% , Malaysia Index, EWM
-1.79% , India PS, PIN
-2.29% , Italy Index, EWI
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1635.01, intraday high of 5/9/2013

The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1567.69, 50-day SMA
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1469.29, 200-day SMA
1463.76, low of 1/15/2013
1451.64, low on 1/8/13
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009