Monday, March 4–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *
The U.S. government March 1 budget sequestration deadline has come and gone with no agreement between Democrats and Republicans. There was no progress made on the matter among politicians during the weekend. While this situation is not unexpected, it has cast a bit of a pall over the market place as the trading week gets under way. Last week’s bearish read on manufacturing and property data coming out of China also worries traders that the second-largest economy in the world could be sputtering again. Meantime, there is a meeting of European Union leaders in Brussels beginning Monday to once again address their sovereign debt crisis. Discussions will likely include Italy, following last week’s elections that showed the country is wavering on its pervious austerity commitments. European and Asian stocks were mostly weaker Monday on the aforementioned factors. Arguably the most important U.S. economic report of the month, the employment situation report, is due out Friday morning. U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the ISM New York report on business.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker early today on some profit taking. The bulls still have the overall near- term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,524.30 and then at the February high of 1,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 1,500.00 and then at 1,490.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early trading on some profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,746.25 and then at Friday’s high of 2,751.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,725.00 and then at Friday’s low of 2,711.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,000 and then at Friday’s low of 13,925. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Friday’s high of 14,090 and then at last week’s high of 14,125. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and hit a fresh six-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the January high of 144 30/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 144 even and then at 143 29/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today and hit a fresh nine-week high overnight. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.00.5 and then at 132.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.25.0 and then at 131.18.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The U.S. dollar index is firmer early today and hovering near a six-month high. The greenback bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 82.795 and then at 83.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.515 and then at 82.240. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices Friday slumped to a nine-week low. Bears have downside technical momentum. In April Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $91.00 and then at $92.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then at $89.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. There have been better moisture patterns in the central U.S. that are working to alleviate the severe soil shortages in the region and that’s and underlying bearish factor for the grain markets. Traders will examine this morning’s weekly USDA export inspections report.
