U.S. Stock Indexes Firmer Tuesday AM as Fresh Data Awaited

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stock markets and the Euro currency were firmer despite news that Euro zone retail sales fell sharply in December, at down 0.8% on the month and down 3.4% on an annual basis. This data underscores the European Union has a tough road of economic recovery ahead. Other EU data released Tuesday did continue to show slight improvement as the Euro Zone PMI rose to 48.6 in January from 47.2 in December. Escalating political scandal in Spain has hit the local IBEX stock market recently. Spanish bond yields have also been on the rise recently. There are also concerns about an upcoming election in Italy. Still, Spanish and Italian bond yields are not near the critical 6% or above levels that prompted such concerns just a few months ago. Italian bond yields are presently around 4.4% and Spanish bond yields are near 5.25%. On Thursday the European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting, including a press conference by ECB chief Mario Draghi. Also later this week China will issue a fresh batch of economic data, including inflation and trade balance reports. The market place will closely scrutinize the ECB meeting results and the data coming out of China. U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, and the global services PMI.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today and are hovering near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,510.00 and then at 1,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 1,490.50 and then at 1,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at 2,750.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,764.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 2,709.00 and then at 2,698.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at 13,867 and then at Monday’s low of 13,810. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of 13,960 and then at 14,000. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today and hovering near Monday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 143 even and then at 143 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 142 5/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today and hovering near a 4.5-month low. Bears have downside near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 131.15.0 and then at the overnight high of 131.21.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and then at Monday’s low of 130.23.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Greenback bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 79.81 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.49 and then at Monday’s low of 79.17. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hovering near a 4.5-month high. Bulls still have some upside momentum as a two-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In March Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.50 and then at $98.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $95.89 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Corn and soybean bulls still have some technical momentum on their side but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Wheat bulls are fading. Dry weather in Argentina is still a bullish factor for corn and soybeans. Grain traders are also awaiting Friday morning’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.